UBS Group AG to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

UBS Group AG UBS is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 4. The company’s quarterly revenues are expected to have declined year over year, while earnings are expected to have increased.

In the last reported quarter, UBS’s results were aided by the strong performances of the Global Wealth Management, Asset Management and Investment Bank divisions. However, the decline in total assets was concerning.

The consensus estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 25 cents per share, which has been unchanged in the past seven days. This indicates a rise of 8.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $11.62 billion, implying a marginal decline.

Its earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average positive earnings surprise of 53.16%.

UBS Group AG Price and EPS Surprise

UBS Group AG price-eps-surprise | UBS Group AG Quote

Major Factors Expected to Impact UBS’s Q4 Results

Net Interest Income (NII): In the fourth quarter of 2025, average interest rates were relatively unchanged, aiding deposit margins. Given this, NII is likely to have risen for UBS in the quarter to be reported.

Further, overall lending activity improved across regions in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is likely to have aided UBS’s loan growth in the quarter.

Fee Income: Notably, higher client activities and market capabilities are expected to have increased recurring fees for UBS in the fourth quarter. On similar lines, the company is expected to have seen higher performance fees in the asset management and wealth management franchises in the fourth quarter. Given that global wealth management accounts for the lion's share of the bank's profits, this is anticipated to have positively benefited the fourth-quarter performance. Given its global scale and market share, net new fee-generating assets are likely to have been robust in thr quarter-to-be-reported.

Coming to investment banking operations, deal-making activity was solid in fourth-quarter 2025.  Also, a rise in investment banking activity due to decent capital markets, and a rise in equity and debt issuance deal volume were seen. Hence, the company’s investment banking revenues were expected to have increased.

Expenses: UBS Group AG has been making efforts to become more digital and data-driven to provide clients with digital-first services. The company has also been migrating toward a cloud-based application system, accelerating digitalization and facilitating connection with the financial industry ecosystem. Such moves, along with inflation-led personnel compensation increases, are likely to have inflated the company’s expense base in the fourth quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for UBS

Our quantitative model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for UBS Group AG. This is because it lacks the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for UBS is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Release Dates of Other Foreign Banks

The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited NTB is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and 2025 results on Feb. 9, 2026.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTB’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $1.46 per share over the past seven days. The figure implies an increase of 8.9% from the prior-year quarter.

Barclays PLC BCS is expected to announce fourth-quarter and 2025 results on Feb. 12, 2026.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BCS’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 42 cents per share over the past week. The figure implies an increase of 23.5% from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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