Can These 3 Energy Stocks Surpass Q4 Earnings Estimates?

The oil and energy sector encountered considerable challenges in the fourth quarter of 2025, as fluctuating commodity prices and overall market instability made it difficult to navigate. Oil prices fell due to reduced demand and rising supply, while natural gas prices experienced a rise, creating a mixed scenario for energy firms.As the earnings season begins, many experts are expecting lower-than-usual results, which opens the possibility for some surprises. Could certain energy stocks outperform expectations and deliver results that are better than what was anticipated?

Let’s explore three prominent companies and evaluate how they are positioned before their fourth-quarter earnings release.

Oil Price Struggles and Natural Gas Surge: Analyzing the Q4 FY25 Trends

In the fourth quarter of 2025, oil prices for West Texas Intermediate crude experienced a notable decline, averaging $59.64 per barrel, compared with $70.69 the prior year’s period. The primary driver of this drop was an ongoing global oversupply that outpaced tepid demand growth. OPEC+ nations began to roll back their voluntary production cuts in September, increasing supply. This, combined with consistent output from non-OPEC producers like U.S. shale, Brazil, Guyana and Canada, led to inventory builds reaching as much as 2 million barrels per day.

On the demand side, weaker consumption was seen due to slower economic activity in key regions such as China and Europe, the growing adoption of electric vehicles, advancements in energy efficiency and the impact of emerging trade tariff uncertainties during the Trump Administration.

In contrast, natural gas prices saw an uptick in fourth-quarter 2025, with the Henry Hub spot price averaging $3.75 per million British thermal units, up from $2.44 from the prior year's level. This rise was driven by several factors: colder-than-average winter weather in North America, which spurred increased heating demand, strong LNG export volumes to Europe and Asia in response to global energy demands and heightened consumption from data centers fueled by the rapid growth of AI technologies.

How Low Oil Prices Are Affecting the Energy Sector's Q4 Earnings

According to the Earnings Trends report, the performance within the Oils/Energy sector during the fourth quarter has been notably divergent, showcasing both robust gains and significant headwinds. The 16.7% of the S&P 500 energy companies that have already reported fourth-quarter results are experiencing impressive growth, with earnings jumping 135% year over year and revenues ticking up 3.6%.

These companies also boast a perfect 100% beat rate across both earnings and revenues, indicating that certain players in the sector are successfully navigating a period of low oil prices. This success could be attributed to factors such as cost controls, exposure to natural gas, or strength in downstream operations.

However, when looking at the full sector-wide outlook for the fourth quarter, which combines both reported and estimated results, the picture becomes more muted. The blended outlook suggests a more modest 10.2% year-over-year earnings growth alongside a 2.2% revenue decline, highlighting a considerable gap between early-reporting companies and the Oils/Energy sector.This discrepancy raises the possibility that the outperforming companies may be outliers, while the larger portion of the sector continues to grapple with the downward pressure of lower oil prices.

In fact, the sector has seen substantial negative estimate revisions since the beginning of fourth-quarter 2025, highlighting how the outlook for the industry has soured as the quarter has unfolded. This mixed performance underscores a challenging operating environment for many energy companies, where, despite some success stories, the Oil/Energy sector is still under strain.

Oil/Energy Companies’ Earnings in Focus

In light of this context, let’s explore how the following oil and energy companies are shaping up ahead of their fourth-quarter earnings reports on Feb. 4, and how they’re poised to tackle the challenges they face.

Our proprietary model indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

NOV Inc. NOV is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the market close. The chances of this Houston, TX -based oil and gas equipment and services company delivering an earnings beat this time around are low, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

NOV is a global provider of technology, equipment and services for the oil and gas industry. The company designs and manufactures systems for drilling, production and industrial applications, while also expanding into renewable energy solutions.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NOV’s earnings is pegged at 25 cents per share, indicating a 39.02% decrease from the prior-year reported figure. NOV’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the trailing four quarters while missing once, delivering an average negative surprise of 16.09%.

This is depicted in the chart below:

NOV Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

NOV Inc. price-eps-surprise | NOV Inc. Quote

On the other hand, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. PTEN is scheduled to report quarterly earnings following the market's close. The chances of this Houston, TX-based oil and gas drilling company delivering an earnings beat this time around are high, as it currently has an Earnings ESP of +19.15% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Patterson-UTI Energy is a leading provider of onshore drilling and pressure pumping services in North America. The company operates one of the largest fleets of land-based drilling rigs and offers well completion and directional drilling solutions to support oil and gas exploration and production.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Patterson-UTI Energy’s earnings is pegged at a loss of 9 cents per share, implying a decline from the break-even earnings reported in the year-ago period. PTEN’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice in the last four quarters and missed twice, delivering an average surprise of 17.5%.

This is depicted in the chart below:

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Quote

Finally, Phillips 66 PSX is scheduled to report quarterly earnings before the opening bell. The chances of this Houston, TX-based oil and gas refining and marketing company delivering an earnings beat this time around are high, as it currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.88% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Phillips 66 is a diversified energy manufacturing and logistics company. It operates in refining, midstream, chemicals and marketing, with a strong presence in the U.S. and international markets. The company focuses on delivering energy safely and efficiently while investing in sustainability and emerging energy solutions.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PSX’s earnings is pegged at $2.11 per share, indicating a 1,506.67% increase from the prior-year reported figure. PSX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the four quarters while missing once, delivering an average negative surprise of 18.31%

This is depicted in the chart below:

Phillips 66 Price and EPS Surprise

 

Phillips 66 price-eps-surprise | Phillips 66 Quote

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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