Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Tenet Healthcare?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Tenet Healthcare (THC) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.19 a share seven days away from its upcoming earnings release on February 11, 2026.
Tenet Healthcare's Earnings ESP sits at +2.72%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $4.19 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.08. THC is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
THC is one of just a large database of Medical stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Amgen (AMGN).
Amgen, which is readying to report earnings on May 7, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $5.29 a share, and AMGN is 92 days out from its next earnings report.
Amgen's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +8.59% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.87.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, THC and AMGN could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC): Free Stock Analysis Report Amgen Inc. (AMGN): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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