AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on AeroVironment, Inc. on Monte Independent Investment Research’s Substack by Monte Investments. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on AVAV. AeroVironment, Inc.'s share was trading at $306.94 as of January 28th. AVAV’s trailing and forward P/E were 149.83 and 77.52 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. AVAV is a long-standing defense technology company that has evolved from its origins in experimental aircraft into a leading provider of autonomous systems, unmanned aircraft, and advanced defense technologies.

The defense spending environment is becoming increasingly supportive as 2026 budgets in the U.S. and internationally firm up, with unmanned systems now a central pillar of modern warfare. This backdrop creates favorable conditions for AV, particularly given the growing role of drones and counter-UAS solutions observed in recent global conflicts.

AV has undergone a major transformation following its $4.1 billion all-stock acquisition of BlueHalo, which closed in May 2025. The deal significantly expanded AV’s capabilities across counter-UAS, electronic warfare, cyber, AI, direct energy, and space technologies, with BlueHalo contributing roughly 37% of revenue in the first half of 2026.

The company now operates across two segments—Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber & Direct Energy—offering an integrated technology stack that spans command and control, intelligence, autonomous targeting, and battlefield communications. New product developments, such as AI-enabled autonomous drones, laser communications terminals, and open-architecture software frameworks, further strengthen AV’s positioning across multi-domain defense applications and potential programs like Golden Dome.

Operational momentum remains strong, with AV securing $3.5 billion in total contract ceiling value during Q2’26 and exiting the quarter with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.84x. Management raised full-year guidance and is expanding manufacturing capacity to meet rising demand.

While margins have been pressured by post-acquisition overlap, cost rationalization and scale are expected to drive improvement. Despite premium valuation levels, AV’s balance sheet remains solid, and recent share price weakness may offer a more attractive long-term entry point as defense spending and autonomous warfare adoption accelerate.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) by Stock Picker’s Corner in January 2025, which highlighted the rising strategic importance of drones amid escalating geopolitical tensions and expanding UAV adoption by global militaries. AVAV’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 90.63% since our coverage as the thesis played out. Monte Investments shares a similar view but emphasizes post-BlueHalo integration, multi-domain capabilities, and contract-led growth visibility.

AeroVironment, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 37 hedge fund portfolios held AVAV at the end of the third quarter which was 31 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of AVAV as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW 

Disclosure: None.