Copa Holdings to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Copa Holdings CPA   is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share and revenues is pegged at $4.40 and $965.49 million, respectively.

The bottom-line projection indicates year-over-year growth of 10.3%. The consensus mark for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share has been revised upward by 1 cent over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year expansion of 10.1%.

For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPA’s revenues is pegged at $3.62 billion, implying a 5.1% year-over-year uptick. The consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $16.71, indicating year-over-year growth of approximately 14.8%.

In the trailing four quarters, this Latin American airline company’s earnings beat estimates on each occasion, with the average surprise being 8.2%.

Q4 Earnings Whispers for CPA

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for CPA for the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

CPA has an Earnings ESP of +1.06% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Factors Likely to Have Influenced CPA’s Q4 Performance

The top line in the to-be-reported quarter is expected to have been bolstered by the improvement in air-travel demand.

In order to cater to this improvement, CPA has been boosting its capacity. For 2025, CPA expects consolidated capacity to grow 8% year over year, and the operating margin is expected to be in the range of 22-23%. The load factor for 2025 is expected to be 87% (higher than 86.3% reported in 2024).

Passenger revenues, which account for the bulk of the top line, are likely to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate for passenger revenues is pegged at $900.3 million, up 8.9% compared with the fourth-quarter 2024 actuals. Meanwhile, the consensus mark for revenues from the cargo and mail segment is pegged at $34.2 million, indicating an increase of 18.1% year over year.

On the contrary, CPA expects to continue experiencing increased cost pressure from wages, salaries, benefits and other employee expenses, airport facilities and handling charges. We expect operating costs to increase 12.1% in fourth-quarter 2025 from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals, led by the 10.5% rise in wages, salaries, benefits and other employee expenses, and 10.3% rise in airport facilities and handling charges.

Highlights of CPA’s Q3 Earnings

Copa Holdings reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.20, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.03 and improved 20% year over year. Revenues of $913.1 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $915 million but inched up 6.8% year over year.

Passenger revenues (which contributed 94.3% to the top line) grew 5.2% year over year to $861.33 million. The upside was owing to an 8% year-over-year increase in revenue passenger miles, partially offset by a 2.6% decrease in yield.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. 

Expeditors International of Washington EXPD has an Earnings ESP of +0.34% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

EXPD is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 24. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has remained flat over the past 60 days. EXPD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 13.94%. 

Ryder System R has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. R is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 11.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised upward by 0.27% over the past 60 days. Ryder’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 2.6%.  

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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