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'I'll Buy 100% Guaranteed,' Says Trader - If Bitcoin Reaches $40,000 Or Major Political Shock Unfolds

By Khyathi Dalal | February 06, 2026, 9:21 AM

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) broke below key support levels this week, prompting traders to reassess when, or if, the market might offer an attractive long-term entry.

Trader Guarantees Buying Bitcoin

In a recent post on X, trader DonAlt said he would go "100% guaranteed" into Bitcoin only if one of several major events occurs.

Those potential scenarios include Bitcoin falling to $40,000, a level he views as deeply undervalued, or a dramatic shift in U.S. politics, such as Donald Trump exiting the political stage. He also cited a full unravelling of the Epstein case, with charges brought against powerful figures, as another potential trigger.

Until then, DonAlt said he plans to trade short-term and "play day-by-day" rather than make a heavy directional bet.

He also added that Michael Saylor selling Bitcoin would be a major market signal, though he does not expect that to happen until 2027 or 2028, if at all.

‘Best Level On The Chart,' But Still Waiting

DonAlt acknowledged that Bitcoin has reached what he considers a strong technical level but said uncertainty around U.S. political and macro developments keeps him sidelined.

For a bullish outlook to return, he noted, Bitcoin must reclaim the prior range high near $71,000.

Absent that move, he prefers waiting for a deeper pullback near $44,000 range, arguing that buying between those levels offers poor risk-reward.

For now, DonAlt's cautious stance has proven correct, as volatility remains elevated and conviction across the market continues to erode.

Image: Shutterstock

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