Apollo Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Apollo Global Management, Inc. APO is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 9, before market open. APO’s quarterly earnings are expected to have declined from the year-ago period, while revenues are expected to have increased from the year-ago reported levels.

In the last reported quarter, Apollo’s earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were primarily aided by an increased asset under management (AUM) balance. However, rising expenses acted as a headwind in the quarter.

APO’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 8.21%.

Apollo Global Management Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Apollo Global Management Inc. price-eps-surprise | Apollo Global Management Inc. Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APO’s earnings of $2.03 has remained unchanged over the past seven days. The figure indicates a decline of 8.6% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $1.19 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 24.8%.

Key Factors & Estimates for APO in Q4

Supported by overall asset inflows on the back of volatile markets, the company’s total AUM balance is expected to have improved. Also, its diversified asset classes, client bases and geographies are likely to have supported AUM growth in the quarter to be reported.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s total AUM in the fourth quarter of 2025 is pegged at $933.9 billion, which suggests a sequential rise of 2.9%.

The consensus estimate for management fees (segment earnings) is pegged at $918.4 million, indicating a sequential rise of 6.4%.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the consensus estimate for fee-related performance fees (segment earnings) is pegged at $73.9 million, indicating a rise of 1.3% from the previous quarter’s reported number.

The consensus estimate for net capital solutions fees and other (segment earnings) is pinned at $195.9 million, indicating a sequential decline of 7.6%.

On the cost front, the company’s ongoing investments in building its capital formation and credit investing teams, along with charges related to mergers, are likely to have kept the expense base elevated in the fourth quarter.

What Our Model Predicts for APO

Per our proven model, the chances of Apollo beating estimates this time are low. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Apollo has an Earnings ESP of -0.44%.

Zacks Rank: APO currently has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Performances of Other Asset Managers

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.’s TROW fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.44 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.47. Nevertheless, the bottom line increased 15.1% year over year.

TROW’s results were affected by higher expenses. Nonetheless, an increase in investment advisory fees and capital allocation-based income supported the results. Also, higher assets under management were another positive.

Invesco’s IVZ fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 62 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 57 cents. The bottom line increased 19.2% from the prior-year quarter.

The results of IVZ have been primarily aided by an increase in adjusted revenues. Moreover, growth in the assets under management reached record levels, supporting the results to an extent. However, an increase in adjusted operating expenses was a headwind.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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