Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Conagra Brands, Inc. on Aklan Investment Research’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CAG. Conagra Brands, Inc.'s share was trading at $19.55 as of February 5th. CAG’s trailing and forward P/E were 10.84 and 10.96 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is a U.S.-based packaged food company with a diversified portfolio spanning Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice. Its brand lineup includes well-known household names such as Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Marie Callender’s, and Slim Jim, supported by a large-scale manufacturing footprint of more than 40 facilities and approximately 18,300 employees.

Despite the defensive nature of its business, Conagra’s stock has come under pressure as persistent commodity inflation in proteins like chicken, beef, and pork has squeezed margins, while tariffs on tin-plate steel and aluminum have added roughly 3% to cost of goods sold. Although pricing actions have partially offset these pressures, management has acknowledged that further price increases risk volume erosion, contributing to expectations of a roughly 2% year-over-year decline in organic net sales, compounded by temporary supply chain disruptions in frozen meals.

However, the current weakness has set the stage for a more constructive forward outlook. Conagra is executing its multi-year “Fuel for Growth” initiative, which focuses on modernizing and simplifying the supply chain through automation, digitization, and a reduction in distribution centers, with a targeted $1 billion in cumulative cost savings over approximately three years. If achieved, these efficiencies could meaningfully restore margins and free cash flow generation.

Additionally, Conagra’s positioning as a consumer staples company offers recession resilience, as demand for affordable, at-home food products tends to remain stable during economic downturns. An approximately 8% dividend yield further enhances the stock’s appeal for income-oriented investors willing to wait through near-term volatility.

Innovation provides another potential catalyst, with over 50 new frozen product launches, expansion of gluten-free offerings, and a commitment to remove artificial dyes by year-end 2025. While long-term revenue growth has historically been modest, successful execution on innovation and cost savings could stabilize performance and support a gradual rerating, making Conagra an improving, albeit patient, investment case.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) by Isaac459 in November 2024, which highlighted the company’s affordability-driven demand resilience, defensive characteristics during inflationary periods, low market correlation, and dividend support. CAG’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 32% since our coverage due to commodity inflation and tariff-related pressures. Aklan Investment Research shares a similar view but emphasizes supply chain modernization, margin recovery, and cost savings as the primary drivers of upside.

Conagra Brands, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 34 hedge fund portfolios held CAG at the end of the third quarter which was 38 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of CAG as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CAG and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.