Dutch Bros Q4 Earnings Ahead: Can Transaction Growth Sustain Momentum?

Dutch Bros Inc. BROS is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12.

The company has an impressive track record of earnings surprises. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 91.9%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BROS’ fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 10 cents, indicating 42.9% growth from 7 cents reported in the prior-year quarter. The consensus earnings mark has remained unchanged over the past 60 days.

The consensus mark for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $426.8 million, indicating growth of 24.5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Factors Likely to Influence Dutch Bros’ Q4 Results

Dutch Bros’ revenue performance in fourth-quarter 2025 is likely to have been supported by sustained transaction-driven same-shop sales growth, building on the strong momentum exiting third-quarter 2025 and management’s commentary around a healthy October start. The brand continued to benefit from solid traffic trends across dayparts, aided by operational improvements such as better labor deployment and enhanced throughput. These efforts are likely to have enabled shops to handle higher demand more efficiently, reinforcing volume growth even as the company cycled a strong prior-year quarter.

Revenues in the quarter are also likely to have benefited from increasing engagement across digital channels and the loyalty ecosystem. Order Ahead adoption continued to rise sequentially, particularly in newer markets, improving convenience and visit frequency. This digital usage fed directly into Dutch Rewards, which accounted for a substantial majority of transactions. The growing use of targeted and segmented offers, rather than blanket promotions, is likely to have helped drive incremental visits while preserving revenue quality.

In addition, menu innovation and the early-stage expansion of the hot food program are likely to have provided an incremental revenue lift in fourth-quarter 2025. The company experienced strong traction from fall limited-time offerings, which management characterized as its most successful seasonal launch to date. Meanwhile, stores equipped with the hot food platform are likely to have seen higher morning traffic and increased attachment, contributing positively to same-shop sales despite food still being in the early phases of rollout.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues from company-operated shops is pegged at $397 million, compared with $314 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Franchising and other revenues are projected at $30.5 million compared with $28.6 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Dutch Bros’ bottom-line performance in fourth-quarter 2025 is likely to have been aided by operating leverage from higher sales volumes and disciplined expense management. Continued transaction growth is likely to have helped offset pressures from elevated coffee costs and incremental expenses tied to food rollout and regulatory labor changes. At the same time, improved labor efficiency and SG&A leverage from scale are likely to have supported profitability, enabling adjusted earnings growth even as the company continued investing in new shops, people and long-term growth initiatives.

Q4 Earnings Whispers for BROS Stock

Our proven model doesn’t predict an earnings beat for Dutch Bros this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

BROS’ Earnings ESP: Dutch Bros has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Dutch Bros’ Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are a few stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. QSR has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Restaurant Brands’ earnings are expected to register a 14.8% year-over-year increase. QSR’s earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with an average miss of 0.4%.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory’s earnings are expected to decline 5.8% year over year. CAKE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 12.7%.

Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.46% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Domino's earnings are expected to register a 9.6% year-over-year rise. Domino's earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with an average beat of 1.1%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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