Hilton Gears Up to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11, 2026, before the opening bell.

HLT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.8%.

Trend in Estimate Revision of HLT

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $2.00, indicating growth of 13.6% from $1.76 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. price-eps-surprise | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Quote

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $3 billion. The metric suggests a 7.3% rise from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Let’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors Likely to Shape Hilton’s Q4 Results

Hilton’s fourth-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from improving group demand trends, easier year-over-year comparisons and favorable holiday calendar shifts. Strengthening convention activity, better group positioning and stable leisure demand are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Management expects system-wide RevPAR to increase approximately 1% in the fourth quarter, driven by stronger group contributions, holiday timing benefits and reduced headwinds from prior-year international events and renovation-related disruptions.

Hilton’s group business is expected to be a key contributor in the quarter under review. While group RevPAR declined in the third quarter due to tough comparables, renovation impacts and lapping major events, management noted a meaningful improvement in group demand, with fourth-quarter group positioning strengthening and 2026 bookings tracking up in the mid-single digits. This improvement, combined with a solid convention calendar, is likely to have supported occupancy and rate trends in the to-be-reported quarter.

Regional performance is expected to have supported the company’s fourth-quarter performance. Continued strength in the Middle East and Africa, steady growth in Europe aided by easier comparisons, and mid-single-digit RevPAR growth in the Americas outside the United States are likely to have offset softer trends in the United States and China.

Hilton’s asset-light business model and disciplined cost management are expected to have supported margins in the fourth quarter. Strong non-RevPAR-driven fee growth, higher franchise fees and continued operating efficiencies are likely to have contributed positively. The company expects adjusted EBITDA in the range of $906 million to $936 million for the quarter to be reported.

Our model predicts revenues from management and franchise hotels to grow 8.9% year over year to $882 million. Our model estimates franchise and licensing fees to rise 12% year over year to $718.9 million.

However, ongoing macroeconomic challenges, including lingering pressure on business transient and government-related travel, foreign currency fluctuations and portfolio renovation activity, are likely to have weighed on performance. Additionally, continued softness in China is expected to have remained a drag on its Asia Pacific results.

What Our Model Says About HLT Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Hilton this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.

Earnings ESP for HLT: Hilton has an Earnings ESP of +0.02%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Hilton’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some other stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Amer Sports, Inc. AS has an Earnings ESP of +5.69% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Amer Sports is expected to register a 58.8% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. Amer Sports reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 78%.

Acushnet Holdings Corp. GOLF has an Earnings ESP of +10.05% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Acushnet’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decline 1200%. Acushnet reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 26.4%.

PENN Entertainment, Inc. PENN currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.03% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

PENN’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 54.6%. PENN reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 59.1%.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research