What's in the Cards for Kimco Realty Stock in Q4 Earnings?

Kimco Realty Corporation KIM is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12, before the opening bell. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display year-over-year growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this Jericho, NY-based retail real estate investment trust (“REIT”) reported FFO per share of 44 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 43 cents. Results reflected higher same-property NOI due to a rise in minimum rents. Higher interest expenses acted as a dampener.

Over the preceding four quarters, Kimco’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and met in the remaining period, the average beat being 2.36%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Kimco Realty Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Kimco Realty Corporation price-eps-surprise | Kimco Realty Corporation Quote

US Retail Real Estate Market in Q4

The final quarter reflected a sector that had largely stabilized after years of uneven recovery, supported by steady consumer demand, diminished uncertainty from tariffs and disciplined supply growth. Also, holiday sales were resilient. Cushman & Wakefield’s CWK fourth-quarter 2025 retail real estate market report reinforces this improving tone as landlords entered year-end with firmer fundamentals.

Cushman’s fourth-quarter 2025 data points to strengthening retail demand, with net absorption turning positive across all major U.S. regions. National retail vacancy came in at 5.7%, reflecting relatively tight conditions compared with historical norms. New supply remained limited, helping stabilize occupancy across shopping centers.

Leasing momentum improved toward year-end, driven by grocery chains, discount retailers and experiential tenants absorbing secondary space. Cushman reported approximately 3.4 million square feet of net absorption in the fourth quarter, the strongest quarterly improvement since the fourth quarter of 2023. Asking rents continued to trend higher on a year-over-year basis to $25.29 per square feet, supported by stable tenant sales and foot traffic.

Factors to Consider Ahead of KIM’s Upcoming Results

In the fourth quarter, Kimco seems to have gained from its portfolio of premium shopping centers, which are predominantly grocery-anchored and in the drivable first-ring suburbs of its top major metropolitan Sunbelt and coastal markets.

Led by a healthy mix of essential, necessity-based tenants and omnichannel retailers, this retail REIT enjoys a diverse tenant base. This is likely to have aided stable revenue generation during the to-be-reported quarter, driving top-line growth. Moreover, Kimco’s focus on developing mixed-use assets clustered in strong economic metropolitan statistical areas is likely to have given it an edge by driving net asset value.

However, high interest expenses are anticipated to have affected Kimco’s performance to some extent during the quarter.

Q4 Projections for KIM

The company’s top line is expected to have improved due to the above tailwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KIM’s quarterly revenues stands at $537.6 million, implying 2.3% growth from the prior-year reported number.

Our estimate for net revenues from rental properties stands at $529.4 million, indicating a 1.6% increase year over year. However, we expect KIM’s leased occupancy to decrease 10 basis points sequentially to 95.6% in the to-be-reported quarter. We estimate a year-over-year increase of 6.7% in its fourth-quarter interest expenses.

Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share has moved a cent upward to 44 cents over the past month. It also implies a rise of 4.8% year over year.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for KIM

Our proven model conclusively predicts a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Kimco this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is the case here.

Kimco currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.57% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two other stocks from the retail REIT sector — Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT and Realty Income O — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

FRT, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 12, currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.90% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

O, slated to release quarterly numbers on Feb. 24, has an Earnings ESP of +0.99% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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