Vale is Set to Report Q4 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Vale S.A. VALE is expected to post year-over-year growth in revenues and earnings when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s sales is pegged at $10.75 billion, indicating a 6% increase from the year-ago quarter's figure. The consensus mark for earnings has moved up 24% over the past 60 days to 57 cents per share. The figure indicates a solid 185% year-over-year growth.

VALE’s Earnings Surprise History

Vale’s earnings performance has been mixed in recent quarters. Earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the mark in the other two, delivering an average surprise of 1.99%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for VALE Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vale this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Vale is -3.51%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Vale currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped Vale's Q4 Performance

Vale recently released its fourth-quarter production and sales update, offering an insight into its expected quarterly performance. Iron ore production was around 90.4 Mt, a 6% increase year over year, driven by strong performance at the Brucutu plant and the ramp-up of the Capanema and VGR1 projects.
Pellet production was down 9% year over year to 8.32 Mt. 

Iron ore fines sales were up 5.2% from the year-ago quarter to 73.6 Mt. Pellet sales were down 10% to around 9.1 Mt. Total iron ore sales rose 4.5% year over year to 84.9 Mt.

Average realized iron ore fines price was $95.4 per ton in the quarter, up 2.6% year over year. Realized prices for iron ore pellets declined 8% to $131.4 per ton. 

Nickel production for the quarter was 46.2 kt, up 1.5% year over year, aided by the successful commissioning of Onça Puma's second furnace and Voisey's Bay underground mines ramp-up. Nickel sales were recorded at 49.6 kt, up 5.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The average realized nickel price was $15,015 per ton, down 7% from the year-ago quarter. 

Copper production was up 6% year over year to 108.1 kt. Vale sold 106.9 kt of copper in the fourth quarter, which was 8% higher than the prior-year quarter. 
The average realized price for copper operations only (Salobo and Sossego) was $11,003 per ton, up 19.8% year over year. The average realized copper price for all operations (including copper sales originating from nickel operations) was $11,025 per ton.

Overall, Vale’s revenues are expected to have benefited from higher iron ore volumes and improved pricing, partially offset by weaker pellet revenues. Higher copper volumes and prices are likely to have provided additional upside, while nickel revenues are expected to have faced pressure from lower prices despite higher sales volumes. Elevated input costs are likely to have weighed on margins, though ongoing cost-control initiatives are expected to have cushioned part of the impact.

VALE Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation

In a year, shares of Vale have gained 75.6% compared with the industry’s 75.4% growth.

Vale has also outpaced iron miners like Rio Tinto Group RIO, Fortescue Ltd FSUGY and BHP Group Limited BHP, which have gained 55.5%, 41% and 26.2%, respectively, in the past year.

Vale is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 1.87X at a premium to the industry’s 1.43X. 

The stock is however cheaper than Rio Tinto, Fortescue and BHP Group, which are trading at 2.08X, 3.01X and 3.44X, respectively.

Investment Thesis on VALE

Rising global steel production, driven by urbanization, is expected to support iron ore demand and pricing over the long term. To capitalize on this, Vale has budgeted $4 billion in capex for its Iron Ore Solutions business in 2026 and $3.9 billion annually from 2027. It aims to lift production capacity to 335–345 Mt in 2026 and 360 Mt by 2030. This will be supported by the Vargem Grande 1 and Capanema Maximization projects. Vale is also scaling up investments in base metals to benefit from the energy transition. Strong cost discipline underpins competitiveness, with fixed costs steadily declining and meaningful cost reductions achieved across iron ore, copper and nickel operations.

How Should You Play Vale Stock Pre-Q4 Earnings?

Vale is well-positioned for sustained growth, with iron ore demand set to benefit from global urbanization, copper and nickel supported by the energy transition, and a deep and high-quality project pipeline. Vale’s fourth-quarter revenues are expected to reflect volumes and prices for both copper and iron ore. No matter how the upcoming quarterly results play out, investors who already own VALE should retain its shares in their portfolios to benefit from its solid long-term fundamentals. However, given its premium valuation, new investors can wait for a better entry point.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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