Will Lower Patient Days Affect Tenet Healthcare's Q4 Earnings?

Hospital company Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $4.08 per shareon revenues of $5.45 billion. 

The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has increased 3 cents over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 18.6%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 7.5%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tenet Healthcare’s revenues is pegged at $21.26 billion, implying a rise of 2.9% year over year. The consensus mark for 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $16.15, indicating a jump of 35.9% on a year-over-year basis.

Tenet Healthcare beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 27.6%, as you can see below.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Tenet Healthcare Corporation price-eps-surprise | Tenet Healthcare Corporation Quote

Q4 Earnings Whispers for THC

However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

THC has an Earnings ESP of +2.72% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping THC’s Q4 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted patient admissions in total hospital operations suggests 3.9% year-over-year growth. Also, on the same hospital basis, the consensus estimate for adjusted patient admissions indicates a 2.7% increase from a year ago.

Meanwhile, the Ambulatory Care business is likely to have gained from better patient volumes, new service line growth and buyouts. Our model estimate for the Ambulatory Care segment’s operating revenues suggests 8.4% growth from the prior-year quarter’s figure, whereas the consensus estimate indicates a 9.8% increase. Higher patient service revenues are likely to have provided a boost in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted EBITDA from Ambulatory Care operations suggests 9% year-over-year growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hospital Operations and Services revenues for the fourth quarter is pegged at $4.07 billion, indicating a 6.9% increase from the year-ago period. The consensus mark for net patient revenues per adjusted admission in the fourth quarter signals a 4.5% year-over-year increase.

The above-mentioned factors are likely to have benefited THC’s results in the quarter under review, positioning it for year-over-year growth. However, both the consensus estimate and our model estimate suggest that fourth-quarter total hospital patient days have decreased 6.5% year over year.

Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for the average length of stay in total hospital indicate an 8.8% decrease from a year ago. Also, with increased utilization, costs are expected to have increased in the fourth quarter, making an earnings beat uncertain.

How Other Medical Companies Performed?

Companies belonging to the broader Medical space, like HCA Healthcare, Inc. HCA, The Ensign Group, Inc. ENSG and Encompass Health Corporation EHC, have also reported results for the December quarter. Here’s how they have performed:

HCA Healthcare reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $8.01, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.8% on the back of strong admissions. Modest gains in emergency room visits and a rise in revenue per equivalent admission also supported performance. However, the upside was partly offset by HCA Healthcare’s elevated operating expenses.

Ensign reported a fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.82, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4%, supported by improved occupancy rates, higher patient days and higher skilled service performance. The positives were partly offset by Ensign’s higher expenses.

Encompass Health reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.46, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.2%,driven by higher net revenue per discharge and increased discharges, with growth coming from both inpatient and other revenues. At the same time, rising operating expenses partially offset these positives.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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