Molina Healthcare to Report Q1 Earnings: Key Estimates to Watch

Healthcare plan provider Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH is set to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 23, 2025, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $5.86 per share on revenues of $11.12 billion. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

The first-quarter earnings estimate declined 2.5% over the past 60 days. However, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 2.3%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 12%.

Molina Healthcare beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being negative 1.3%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Molina Healthcare, Inc Price and EPS Surprise

Molina Healthcare, Inc price-eps-surprise | Molina Healthcare, Inc Quote

Q1 Earnings Whispers for MOH

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

MOH has an Earnings ESP of -17.79% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping MOH’s Q1 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums indicates growth of 11.6% year over year in the first quarter, while our model estimate suggests a 12.4% increase. We expect Medicaid premiums to grow 7.4% year over year in the to-be-reported quarter. The consensus estimate for the Medicare premiums is $1.6 billion, up 9.3% year over year.

An aging U.S. population is likely to have sustained the solid demand for its Medicare plans in the first quarter. The Medicaid membership growth is likely to have been partially offset by the redetermination process.

Medicaid membership is expected to have decreased 0.5% year over year, while MOH’s Medicare membership is projected to witness 3.5% growth. Furthermore, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Marketplace membership suggests a 68.6% increase from the year-ago period.

However, the consensus mark for medical care ratio (MCR) in Marketplace is pegged at 76.51% in the to-be-reported quarter, up from 73.30% a year ago. The consensus mark for total MCR is pegged at 88.54%, marginally up from 88.50% a year ago.

Along with this, rising costs and lower investment income make an earnings beat uncertain. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment income indicates a 5.5% decline year over year. Our model estimate for first quarter total operating expenses predicts a more than 11% increase from the year-ago period, due to higher medical care costs and G&A expenses.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Molina Healthcare, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Acrivon Therapeutics, Inc. ACRV has an Earnings ESP of +1.02% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Acrivon Therapeutics’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates 21.9% improvement from the year-ago period. The estimate remained stable over the past week.

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. TARS has an Earnings ESP of +4.51% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 25.7% year-over-year improvement. Tarsus Pharmaceuticals beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 16.6%.

Cencora, Inc. COR has an Earnings ESP of +0.91% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cencora’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter signals a 7.1% improvement from a year ago. Cencora beat earnings estimates in all the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.9%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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