Should You Buy, Sell or Hold CCJ Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release?

Cameco Corporation CCJ is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 13, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s fourth-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 28 cents, indicating a 7.7% improvement from the prior-year quarter. Over the past 60 days, the estimate has remained unchanged.

Cameco’s Earnings Surprise History

Over the trailing four quarters, Cameco’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and surpassed it twice. CCJ has an average trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 14.80%. The trend is shown in the chart below.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for CCJ Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Cameco this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). 

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Cameco is +2.35%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: CCJ currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped Cameco’s Q4 Performance

CCJ holds a 69.8% stake in the McArthur River mine and 83% in the Key Lake mill, which is considered the world's largest high-grade uranium mine and mill. Cameco has a 54.5% interest in Cigar Lake, the world’s highest-grade uranium mine. 

Cameco had earlier revised its 2025 production outlook from the McArthur River mine due to development delays in transitioning the mine to new mining areas, as well as slower-than-anticipated ground freezing. Its share of production from the operation was projected at 9.8-10.5 million pounds for 2025. CCJ’s expected share from the Cigar Lake mine was maintained at 9.8 million pounds. This suggests up to 20 million pounds of combined production for 2025.

However, backed by Cigar Lake’s upbeat performance, Cameco expected to set off up to 1 million pounds (100% basis) of the production shortfall at the McArthur River.

CCJ had set a target of uranium deliveries at 32-34 million pounds for 2025 compared with the 33.6 million pounds of uranium delivered in 2024. The company also stated plans to make market purchases of up to 1 million pounds and committed purchases (including Inkai) at 9 million pounds. Cameco’s uranium inventory at the end of the third quarter stood at 10 million pounds. 

Through the first nine months of 2025, the company produced 15 million pounds (its share) and delivered 21.8 million pounds. To achieve the 2025 targets, CCJ’s share of production should be around 5 million pounds in the fourth quarter of 2025 and deliveries at 10.2-12.2 million pounds. Given its inventory, market purchases and expected production, the company is likely to have met its delivery target. 

However, compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, when CCJ’s share of production was 6.1 million pounds and sales volume was 12.8 million pounds, these numbers suggest year-over-year declines. Average realized price of uranium was $58.45 per pound (CAD80.90 per pound).

Although uranium prices began the fourth quarter of 2025 near $80 per pound, they softened to an average of $75.80 in November before rebounding to $81.55 per pound in December. Overall, uranium prices averaged approximately $79.12 per pound in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a 3% year-over-year increase. 
Even if quarterly sales volumes were modestly lower than the prior-year period, higher realized pricing is likely to have supported revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Fuel services (which include UF6 conversion, UO2 and heavy water reactor fuel bundles) production for 2025 is expected to be in the band of 13-14 million kgU. Production in the first nine months of 2025 was 10.2 million kgU. To meet 2025 guidance, fourth-quarter production is expected at 2.8-3.8 kgU, which compares with 3.6 million kgU produced in the fourth quarter of 2024. We expect production levels to be at the higher end of the guidance, which, along with favorable prices, is likely to have aided the segment’s revenues in the quarter. 

The company has been lowering its debt levels, which is likely to have led to lower interest expenses, thereby boosting earnings. It has been progressing to lower administration, exploration and operating costs, which is likely to have provided a boost to earnings.

Cameco had raised its share of adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse to be $525-$580 million for 2025. This is tied to Westinghouse’s participation in the construction project for two nuclear reactors at the Dukovany power plant in the Czech Republic. This is expected to aid Cameco’s fourth-quarter results.

CCJ’s Price Performance & Valuation

Cameco shares have appreciated 27.6% in the past six months, outpacing the industry’s return of 4.2%. Meanwhile, the company’s peer Energy Fuels UUUU has surged 38.8% while Uranium Energy UEC has gained 31.8%.

Cameco stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 20.48 compared with the industry’s 1.45.

The company is, however, cheaper than peer Energy Fuels’ and Uranium Energy’s price-to-sales ratios of 48.39 and 78.92, respectively.

Investment Thesis on Cameco

The nuclear power sector is experiencing a strong upswing, driven by global events, the urgency of energy security and a surge in low-carbon energy demand resulting from the climate crisis. Cameco is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this boom, thanks to its high-quality, low-cost asset base and its strategic involvement across the entire nuclear fuel supply chain. CCJ continues to invest in increasing production and capitalizing on market opportunities. Work is underway to extend the mine life at Cigar Lake to 2036. Cameco is also increasing production at McArthur River and Key Lake from 18 million pounds to its licensed annual capacity of 25 million pounds (100% basis).

Should You Buy CCJ Stock Now?

Overall, Cameco appears well-positioned to meet its 2025 production and delivery targets and deliver year-over-year earnings growth in the fourth quarter, with a reasonable probability of an earnings beat. Although the stock trades at a premium to the broader industry, that premium is justified by its tier-one asset base, improving earnings visibility and favorable long-term demand fundamentals. For investors seeking quality exposure to the uranium and nuclear power theme, Cameco remains an attractive buy.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research