UUUU Surges 134% in Past Six Months: How to Play the Stock?

Energy Fuels UUUU has rallied 134.2% in the past six months, significantly outperforming the non-ferrous mining industry’s 81.3% growth,  the Zacks Basic Materials sector’s 31% gain and the S&P 500’s 9.8% climb.

The stock has also beaten peers like Centrus Energy LEU, Uranium Energy UEC and Cameco CCJ, as shown in the chart below. 

UUUU’s Performance vs. Industry, Sector, S&P 500 & Peers

Before investors chase this powerful run, it is important to examine what is driving the momentum, the sustainability of UUUU’s growth and the associated risks.

UUUU’s Recent Efforts in Growing Rare Earth Presence

Building a "Mine-to-Metal & Alloy" REE champion: Last month, Energy Fuels inked a deal to acquire Australian Strategic Materials, a leading producer of REE (rare earth element) metals and alloys.  This will combine Australian Strategic Materials’ operating Korean Metals Plant (KMP) and its planned American Metals Plant with Energy Fuels' existing REE oxide production at its White Mesa Mill. Expected to close in the first half of this year, the deal will help create the largest, fully integrated REE "mine-to-metal and alloy" producer outside of China.

REE Expansion Project at White Mesa Mill: Energy Fuels is planning a Phase 2 expansion of REE processing at White Mesa, increasing Neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) oxide capacity from roughly 1,000 tons per year to more than 6,000 tons annually. With an estimated capital cost of $410 million and projected all-in production costs of $29.39/kg NdPr equivalent, the company expects its REE operations to rank among the lowest-cost producers globally. The expansion could play a pivotal role in rebuilding a competitive U.S.-based rare earth supply chain.

Vara Mada Shows Strong Economics: The feasibility study for the Vara Mada project (previously Toliara) in Madagascar highlights strong project economics, world-class reserves of rare earths, titanium and zircon, and an initial mine life of 38 years with significant expansion potential.

Breakthroughs in Magnet-Grade Rare Earth Production: In December, the 99.9% purity dysprosium oxide produced at its White Mesa Mill passed the stringent quality check requirements of a major South Korean permanent magnet manufacturer. This follows the earlier qualification of its NdPr oxide (another key ingredient in REPMs) for use in NdFeB magnet applications.  These achievements position it among the very few U.S. companies capable of supplying both “light” (NdPr) and “heavy” rare earth oxides that are qualified for permanent magnet applications, representing a meaningful step toward rebuilding a secure domestic and allied rare earth ecosystem.  

Energy Fuels’ Uranium Mines Continue to Outperform

The Pinyon Plain Mine in Arizona and La Sal Complex in Utah produced more than 1.6 million pounds of uranium through 2025, exceeding the upper end of its guidance by approximately 11%. 

Current operations are running at an annualized rate of about 2 million pounds of recoverable uranium, a level management expects to sustain through 2026. Additional exploration drilling is planned in the Juniper Zone at Pinyon Plain in 2026 to further delineate and potentially expand the resource base.

UUUU Headed for Y/Y Decline in Revenues, Loss in 2025

Despite operational momentum, near-term financials remain pressured. In December, Energy Fuels announced uranium sales volume for the fourth quarter of 2025 to be around 360,000 pounds, reflecting a 50% sequential rise. At an average price of around $74.93 per pound, uranium revenues for the quarter are expected to be $27 million. UUUU sold 50,000 pounds of uranium at $80.00 per pound in the fourth quarter of 2024, generating uranium revenues of around $40 million. The company is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results later this month. 

This will likely take its yearly total uranium sales volumes to 650,000 pounds at an average price of $74.15 per pound. In 2024, the company had sold 450,000 pounds at an average price of $84.23.  Despite higher sales volumes, the lower realized prices are weighing on its revenues.  In addition, elevated exploration, development, processing and administrative expenses are expected to result in a full-year loss. Although lower-cost Pinyon Plain ore processing beginning in the fourth quarter is likely to have provided some margin relief, profitability remains elusive.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Fuels’ 2025 earnings is currently pegged at a loss of 34 cents per share, wider than the loss of 28 cents reported in 2024. The bottom-line estimate for 2026 is also pegged at a loss of 14 cents per share.

Both the estimates have undergone negative revisions, as shown in the chart below.

Energy Fuels Provided Upbeat Long-Term Sales Outlook

The company has secured two uranium supply contracts with U.S. nuclear utilities covering deliveries from 2027 through 2032. With these agreements, Energy Fuels expects to sell 780,000–880,000 pounds of uranium under long-term contracts in 2026, while retaining flexibility to sell into the spot market. 
From 2027-2032, its current six long-term contracts represent delivery commitments totaling 2.41-4.41 million pounds of uranium, leaving significant additional uncommitted low-cost uranium for sale.

UUUU’s Balance Sheet Remains Debt-Free

Energy Fuels ended the third quarter with $298.5 million of working capital, including $94 million of cash and cash equivalents, $141.3 million of marketable securities, $12.1 million of trade and other receivables, $74.4 million of inventory and no debt.

The company, like its peer Uranium Energy, has no debt on its balance sheet. Meanwhile, Cameco’s debt-to-capital ratio is at 0.13 and Centrus Energy’s at 0.77.

Energy Fuels’ Valuation Appears Stretched

Energy Fuels is trading at a forward price/sales (P/S) of 49.83X, well above the industry average of 5.19X. The company’s Value Score of F suggests that the stock is not so cheap and has a stretched valuation at this moment.

Meanwhile, Centrus Energy and Cameco are cheaper alternatives than UUUU, with P/S of 7.82X and 20.66X, respectively. Uranium Energy is trading at a loftier P/S of 76.64.

UUUU’s Long-Term Investment Thesis Intact

Demand growth for uranium and rare earth elements, coupled with U.S. efforts to reduce dependence on China, provides structural tailwinds for the company. The inclusion of uranium on the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2025 Critical Minerals List further underscores its national security importance. White Mesa’s unique capability as the only U.S. facility to be able to process monazite and produce separated REE materials gives the company an edge. 

Backed by its debt-free balance sheet, Energy Fuels is ramping up uranium production while developing significant REE capabilities. The Whirlwind mine and Nichols Ranch ISR project are capable of producing within a year of a “go” decision. This could lift annual production to more than 2 million pounds by 2026. Advancing major projects like the Roca Honda Project and the Bullfrog Project in Utah, which, together with its Sheep Mountain Project, could expand the company’s uranium production to a run-rate of up to 5 million pounds annually in the coming years.

Our Final Take on UUUU Stock

Energy Fuels presents a compelling long-term growth story, backed by a strong balance sheet, expanding uranium production and an increasingly strategic rare earth platform.However, after a 134% rally, the stock trades at a premium valuation and faces near-term losses through 2027. It has also seen downward earnings revisions. New investors can consider waiting for a better entry point.

UUUU currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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