Here's What You Must Know Ahead of Builders FirstSource's Q4 Earnings

Builders FirstSource, Inc. BLDR is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 17, before market open.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and net sales surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.2% and 3.8%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, both top and bottom lines tumbled 6.9% and 38.8%, respectively.

BLDR’s earnings topped the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 4.08%.

Trend in BLDR’s Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Builders FirstSource’s fourth-quarter EPS has moved south to $1.30 from $1.31 in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 43.7% year-over-year decline from EPS of $2.31 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Builders FirstSource, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Builders FirstSource, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Builders FirstSource, Inc. Quote

The consensus estimate for net sales is pegged at $3.44 billion, indicating a decline of 10.1% from $3.82 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.

Factors to Shape Builders FirstSource’s Q4 Results

Net Sales

Builders FirstSource’s net sales are expected to have declined year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to softness and uncertainty surrounding the housing market. The affordability concerns due to a still high mortgage rate and persistent sticky inflation have been marring the housing start trends, which have been directly affecting the company’s sales volume. Also, the declining trends in the multi-family and single-family customer segments are likely to have added to the downtrend during the fourth quarter.

Furthermore, the value-added product category (represented 47.1% of third quarter 2025 net sales) of BLDR, which includes manufactured products and windows, doors & millwork, is likely to have been adversely impacted by lower volumes, especially as multifamily exposure and reduced home size and complexity limit demand for higher-content products.

On the other hand, improved contributions from the other two reportable product categories of the company, Specialty building products & services (represented 27.6% of third-quarter net sales) and Lumber & lumber sheet goods (represented 25.3% of third-quarter net sales), are likely to have slightly offset the above headwinds during the quarter, supported by relatively stable repair and remodel activity and some support from recent acquisitions.

BLDR’s focus on strategic acquisitions, disciplined cost control, productivity initiatives, digital tools adoption and continued investments in value-added capabilities is likely to have backed quarterly performance to some extent, even in a seasonally slower quarter.

Earnings

The bottom line of Builders FirstSource is likely to have declined year over year due to lower sales volumes in a weak housing market and a below-normal starts environment. Soft single-family demand and muted multifamily activity are expected to have weighed on earnings, while lower home size and complexity are likely to have reduced revenue per start. Gross margins are also likely to have faced pressure from lower volumes and competitive pricing dynamics across product categories.

Moreover, reduced operating leverage from lower sales and continued margin pressure across the supply chain, despite disciplined cost control, facility consolidations and productivity savings, is expected to have limited profitability during the quarter.

What the Zacks Model Predicts for BLDR

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Builders FirstSource this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, this is not the case here, as you will see below.

BLDR’s Earnings ESP: BLDR has an Earnings ESP of -4.95%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank of BLDR: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the respective quarters to be reported.

Las Vegas Sands LVS currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Las Vegas Sands’ earnings are expected to increase 27.1%. Las Vegas Sands’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 19.5%.

Pool Corp. POOL currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.01% and a Zacks Rank of 3. 

In the to-be-reported quarter, Pool Corp’s earnings are expected to register a 2.1% year-over-year surge. Pool Corp’s earnings surpassed estimates in estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average beat of 0.2%.

PENN Entertainment, Inc. PENN has an Earnings ESP of +7.03% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

In the to-be-reported quarter, PENN Entertainment’s earnings are expected to register a 54.6% year-over-year increase. PENN Entertainment’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with an average beat of 59.1%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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