Recursion Pharmaceuticals to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Recursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX, a TechBio company that decodes biology and chemistry to industrialize drug discovery, is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results soon.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 28 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pinned at $25.5 million.

Let's see how things might have shaped up for the upcoming quarterly release.

Factors to Consider

In the absence of a marketed product, Recursion Pharmaceuticals only recognizes collaboration and grant revenues from its partners.

RXRX has ongoing collaboration agreements with pharmaceutical giants, including Roche, Bayer, Merck, and Sanofi, to develop candidates for several oncology indications with differentiated mechanisms of action. The company also collaborated with NVIDIA Corporation, the global leader in visual computing technologies, to develop a next-generation platform for the creation of novel therapies.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals is expected to provide updates regarding the clinical-stage pipeline programs on its fourth-quarter earnings call.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals’ lead candidate, REC-4881, is being evaluated in a phase Ib/II TUPELO study for familial adenomatous polyposis. In May 2025, the company reported preliminary data from this study and reported additional positive data in December 2025. REC-4881 drove rapid and durable reductions in polyp burden in FAP patients, providing the first clinical validation of the Recursion OS platform. The company plans to engage with the FDA in the first half of 2026 to discuss a potential registration pathway, while also expanding eligibility to younger patients and further refining the dosing strategy.

RXRX shares have plunged 36.8% in the past six months against the industry’s 21.1% growth.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals’ ongoing phase I/II DAHLIA study is evaluating REC-1245, a new chemical entity for the treatment of biomarker-enriched solid tumors and lymphoma. Data readout from the phase I portion of the DAHLIA study is expected in the first half of 2026. Recursion Pharmaceuticals is also developing a few other candidates, like REC-617 (advanced solid tumors) and REC-3565 (B-cell malignancies), in separate early-stage studies.

In 2025, Recursion Pharmaceuticals acquired Rallybio’s full stake in their joint venture for developing REV102 (now REC-102) and an associated backup molecule for the treatment of hypophosphatasia. REC-102, a potent and selective ENPP1 inhibitor with strong preclinical safety data, is expected to enter phase I studies by late 2026. Its oral formulation offers a major advantage over current enzyme replacement therapies, potentially improving patient adherence and reducing treatment-associated risks.

RXRX’s Earnings Surprise History

Recursion Pharmaceuticals has a mixed earnings surprise history so far. The company missed estimates in three of the trailing four reported quarters, beating on the remaining occasion, delivering an average negative surprise of 18.19%. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a surprise of 5.26%.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Quote

Earnings Whispers for RXRX

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Recursion Pharmaceuticals this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP of RXRX: Recursion Pharmaceuticals has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are both pegged at a loss of 28 cents.

RXRX Zacks Rank: RXRX currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Castle Biosciences CSTL has an Earnings ESP of +68.89% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Castle Biosciences’ stock has risen 61.2% in the past six months. CSTL beat earnings estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, missing once, delivering an earnings surprise of 66.11%, on average. Castle Biosciences is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 26.

Immunovant IMVT has an Earnings ESP of +2.13% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of IMVT have surged 68.7% in the past six months. Immunovant beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, delivering an average surprise of 9.51%.

Axsome Therapeutics AXSM has an Earnings ESP of +30.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of AXSM have rallied 63.1% in the past six months. Axsome Therapeutics beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, delivering an average surprise of 8.47%. Axsome Therapeutics is slated to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 23.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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