Walmart Q4 Preview: Investors Should Fade Retailer, Market Expert Says Rally 'Priced Into The Stock'

Retail giant Walmart Inc (NASDAQ:WMT) could provide a picture of what consumer spending in the United States and worldwide looks like when the company reports fourth-quarter financial results Thursday before market open.

Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.

Walmart Q4 Earnings Estimates

Analysts expect Walmart to report fourth-quarter revenue of $189.18 billion, up from $180.55 billion in last year's fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in more than 15 straight quarters.

Analysts expect Walmart to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of 73 cents, up from 66 cents per share in last year's fourth quarter.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in seven of the last eight quarters and eight of the last 10 quarters overall, including beating estimates in the most recently reported third quarter.

What Walmart Experts, Analysts Are Saying Ahead of Q4 Earnings

A strong start for Walmart stock in 2026 could be the theme to watch, with shares likely to move after fourth-quarter results are reported, Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said.

"The theme this earnings season for many of the strong performing staples is to report solid results and then fade," Woods said in a weekly newsletter. "Stocks do well but not well enough to extend the rally as it’s priced into the stock."

Woods used the recent example of Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) for a consumer staple stock that saw shares trading higher into earnings, reported strong results and saw the stock trade down.

"As for WMT, shares have traded higher after five of their last eight reports but comes into this report at extreme levels. It may need to exceed and guide far greater than expectations to continue its impressive run."

Woods said Walmart has a higher price-to-earnings ratio (46) than six of the seven Magnificent Seven stocks, with Tesla the lone exception.

The market expert said Walmart's earnings "will move markets."

DA Davidson analyst Michael Baker maintained a Buy rating on Walmart with a price target of $135 ahead of Q4 earnings.

The analyst highlighted that the report will mark John Furner’s debut as CEO, the fifth CEO since Sam Walton at the retailer.

"Most expect the message to be business as usual, which is to say continued market share gains, comps in the 4%-5% range, and continued margin expansion driven by strength in the core business as well benefits from WMT's ‘Triple A' investment initiatives," Baker said.

The analyst said it wouldn't be a surprise if Walmart's 2026 guidance is below consensus.

"Walmart has been the model of consistency over the past year, with U.S. comps in a tight 4.5%-4.8% range in each of the last four quarters."

Baker said expectations for Walmart are elevated after recent success.

Here are other recent analyst ratings on Walmart stock and their price targets:

• KeyBanc: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $128 to $145
• Telsey: Maintained Outperform rating, with price target of $135
• RBC Capital: Maintained Outperform rating, raised price target from $126 to $140
• BTIG: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $125 to $140
• Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $135 to $140

Key Items to Watch

Walmart's fourth quarter results could show what consumer spending looked like during the recent quarter and highlight whether consumers are trading down from name-brand items to private-label items.

The report could also show if Walmart is gaining market share among consumers of different income levels as dollar stores and Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) have been aggressive with increasing their assortment of lower-priced food items.

In the third quarter, Walmart saw U.S. revenue up 5.1% year-over-year, with market share gains in several segments and strong ecommerce momentum reported.

The company's international business saw sales up 10.8% year-over-year.

Investors and analysts likely want to see strong growth for both of these key segments, along with positive commentary on market share and strong guidance for the next fiscal year.

Walmart's report could have a big impact on major stock market indexes and consumer staple ETFs.

The stock is the 15^th largest holding in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) at around 1% of assets, with Walmart one of the limited companies in the U.S. with a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion.

In the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:DIA), Walmart is the 24^th largest holding at 1.6% of assets due to the price-weighted structure.

In the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF (NYSE:XLP), Walmart is the largest holding at 11.7% of assets.

Walmart Stock Price Action

Walmart stock is down 0.2% to $128.63 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $79.81 to $134.69. Walmart shares are up 14.1% year-to-date in 2026 and up 23.9% over the last 52 weeks.

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