Ondas Jumps on German Police and NATO Wins-Can the Rally Hold Into Earnings?

During the first half of February, the stock market witnessed a significant move in the defense technology sector. Shares of Ondas Inc. (NASDAQ: ONDS) rose more than 15%, breaking through the psychological resistance level of $11 per share. Trading volume was heavy, exceeding 100 million shares multiple times, indicating strong interest from both retail investors and large institutions.

The most immediate catalyst for this rally was a headline-grabbing announcement: the company’s subsidiary, Sentrycs, secured a contract with the German State Police. This deal involves deploying advanced counter-drone technology to protect the airspace over German cities and critical infrastructure.

For investors, this contract serves as a validation stamp. When a major European government entity adopts a new technology for public safety, it signals that the product is reliable, field-tested, and ready for mass adoption. However, looking at this deal in isolation would be a mistake. The agreement with German law enforcement is the capstone of a breakout month for Ondas, marking its transition from a developmental tech firm to a global defense contractor.

From Israel to NATO: A Month of Wins

February 2026 has been a transformational period for Ondas. In less than three weeks, the company has announced major wins across three distinct geographies: the United Kingdom, Israel, and the broader NATO alliance. This sequence of events paints a picture of a company firing on all cylinders.

The German Police Deal (Feb. 17)

The most recent win involves the delivery of Sentrycs Scout units. These are portable, man-packable systems designed for mobile police units. In a world where drones are increasingly used for criminal surveillance or terror threats, police forces need a way to neutralize them instantly. This contract confirms that Ondas has the solution European agencies are looking for.

The NATO Interceptor Order (Feb. 13)

Just days earlier, the company’s Airobotics subsidiary received a multi-million dollar order from a NATO member nation. This order was for the Iron Drone Raider, a system designed to physically intercept and disable hostile drones. While the specific country remains undisclosed for security reasons, a NATO contract often opens the door to sales with other allied nations.

The $30 Million Demining Contract (Feb. 9)

Earlier in the month, the company’s 4M Defense subsidiary won a massive $30 million multi-year contract for demining operations in Israel. Covering approximately 741 acres along the Syrian border, this project utilizes autonomous robots to clear dangerous terrain. This proves that Ondas’ autonomous technology isn’t just for the sky; it is equally effective on the ground.

The Rotron Acquisition (Feb. 2)

Kicking off the month, Ondas acquired Rotron Aero, a UK-based specialist in heavy-lift and long-range unmanned aerial systems (UAS). This strategic move filled a gap in the company’s portfolio, adding long-range strike capabilities that are highly sought after by military clients.

Cash Is King: Ondas Can Afford to Grow Fast

In the world of small-cap technology stocks, cash is the most critical metric. Many promising companies fail not because their technology is bad, but because they run out of money before they can scale. This is where Ondas separates itself from the pack.

Following strategic equity raises in late 2025, the company reported a pro-forma cash position of approximately $840 million.

For a company with a market capitalization of roughly $4.6 billion, holding nearly a billion dollars in cash is a massive advantage. This war chest serves two vital purposes for investors:

1. Risk Mitigation: It creates a safety net. Even if the global economy slows, Ondas has enough cash to fund its operations for years without raising more capital or diluting shareholders further.
2. Agility: It allows the company to be aggressive. If they see a competitor they want to buy or a new technology they need to develop, they have the liquid capital to make it happen immediately.

Revenue growth further supports the bullish thesis. In its third-quarter report for 2025, Ondas posted revenue of $10.1 million, representing a staggering 582% increase year-over-year. Management has also raised its full-year 2026 revenue target to $110 million. When you combine triple-digit growth with a fortress-like balance sheet, the investment risk profile improves significantly.

Soft Kill vs. Hard Kill: A Complete Defense

Why is Ondas winning these contracts over competitors? The answer lies in its System of Systems strategy. Most defense companies specialize in one thing: either detecting drones or shooting them down. Ondas has built a portfolio that does it all.

The recent contract wins highlight this diversity perfectly:

• Soft Kill (German Police): The Sentrycs system uses Cyber-over-RF technology. Instead of shooting a drone, it hacks the communication protocol between the drone and its operator. It then takes control of the drone and lands it safely. This is a soft kill. It is the perfect solution for a police officer in a crowded city square, where shooting a drone out of the sky could hurt civilians or damage property.
• Hard Kill (NATO): The Iron Drone system uses a physical interceptor drone to ram or net a hostile drone. This is a hard kill. This is necessary to protect a nuclear power plant, an airport, or a military base, where the threat must be eliminated with 100% certainty, regardless of the method used.

By owning both technologies, Ondas offers a one-stop shop for defense clients. A government customer can come to Ondas to buy solutions for their city police (Sentrycs), border guards (Iron Drone), and long-range surveillance (Rotron). This integration creates a moat around the business, making it difficult for competitors to displace them.

Execution Drives Value

The market has clearly woken up to the Ondas story, with the stock up over 570% in the last year. However, despite the massive run-up, Wall Street analysts believe the stock has not yet reached its peak.

The consensus rating for Ondas remains a Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $17.29. From the current price level of around $11.08, this implies a potential upside of approximately 56%.

February 2026 will likely be remembered as the month Ondas came of age. The company proved that its aggressive acquisition strategy works, integrating new companies like Rotron and Sentrycs and immediately turning them into contract wins. With a backlog exceeding $40 million, a cash pile of nearly $1 billion, and validation from the German government and NATO, Ondas is entering the rest of the year with undeniable momentum.

For investors, the key metric to watch moving forward will be the next earnings report on March 11. The market will want to see these headline-grabbing contracts convert into recognized revenue. But for now, the bulls are firmly in control.

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The article "Ondas Jumps on German Police and NATO Wins—Can the Rally Hold Into Earnings?" first appeared on MarketBeat.