Nutrien's Earnings Miss Estimates in Q4, Revenues Up Y/Y

Nutrien Ltd. NTR recorded profits of $580 million or $1.18 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, surging from $118 million or 23 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 83 cents per share, up from 31 cents a year ago. The bottom line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 87 cents.

Sales rose around 5% year over year to $5,340 million in the quarter. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,207.3 million.

Nutrien Ltd. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

NTR’s Segment Highlights

Sales in the Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment fell 1% year over year to $3,144 million in the quarter. In the fourth quarter, crop nutrients sales and gross margin fell due to lower sales volumes and a weather-shortened fall window in the United States and lower demand for phosphate. The figure beat our estimate of $2,883.3 million.

The Potash division reported a 37% year-over-year increase in sales, totaling $736 million. The metric missed our estimate of $857.9 million. Fourth-quarter sales rose due to higher selling prices and volumes.

The Nitrogen segment posted sales of $1,093 million, up approximately 11% year over year. The figure beat our estimate of $657.6 million. In the fourth quarter of 2025, sales volumes declined due to the earlier announced controlled shutdown of the Trinidad facility and planned turnarounds at North American operations.

The Phosphate segment generated sales of $483 million, up around 17% year over year. The figure exceeded our estimate of $288.1 million.

NTR’s Financials

At the end of the quarter, NTR had cash and cash equivalents of $701 million, down around 18% year over year. Long-term debt was $9,350 million, which increased 5.3% year over year.

Cash provided in operating activities was $2,977 million in the reported quarter.

NTR’s Outlook

The company projects retail adjusted EBITDA of $1.75 to $1.95 billion for 2026, with the midpoint reflecting high-single digit growth in proprietary products gross margins, a mid-single digit increase in North American crop nutrient sales volumes, improved weather conditions in Australia and cost reduction initiatives across all geographies. 

Potash sales volumes are expected to be 14.1–14.8 million tons, in line with the company’s global shipment estimates. Nitrogen sales volumes are forecast at 9.2–9.7 million tons, factoring in no additional production from the Trinidad and New Madrid facility. 

Phosphate sales volumes are expected to be 2.4–2.6 million tons, supported by operational improvement actions. 

Capital expenditures are projected at $2–$2.1 billion, consistent with 2025, including $400 million in growth investments targeting proprietary products, network optimization, digital capabilities, nitrogen brownfield expansions and potash mine automation. The effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings has been projected at 24–26%.

Finance Costs, and Depreciation and Amortization are expected to be $0.65-$0.75 billion and $2.4-$2.5 billion, respectively. 

NTR’s Price Performance

Nutrien’s shares have gained 36% in the past year compared with a 17.1% rise of the industry. 

NTR’s Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks

NTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Other top-ranked stocks worth a look in the basic materials space include AngloGold Ashanti Plc. AU, Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. ASM and Integra Resources Corp. ITRG.

AngloGold is slated to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 20. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AU’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.9 per share. AU currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Avino Silver is expected to report fourth-quarter results on March 11. ASM carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASM’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 6 cents, indicating a 14.3% year-over-year decline.

Integra Resources is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on March 24. ITRG’s earnings estimate for the fourth quarter is pegged at 6 cents per share, indicating a 200% year-over-year rise. Integra Resources carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

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