Collegium Pharmaceutical to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Collegium Pharmaceutical COLL is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 26, before the opening bell. The company’s commercial portfolio currently comprises Jornay PM, which is approved for treating attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (“ADHD”) as well as its marketed pain-management drugs, Belbuca, Xtampza ER, Nucynta IR and Nucynta ER (collectively the “Nucynta Products”).

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $208.6 million, while the same for earnings is $2.19 per share.

In the past six months, shares of Collegium Pharmaceutical have risen 18% against the industry’s decline of 3.4%.

Let’s see how things might have shaped up before the announcement.

Factors Likely to Influence COLL's Q4 Results

Collegium Pharmaceutical’s revenues in the to-be reported quarter are likely to have been driven by its lead growth driver Jornay PM (methylphenidate HCl), reflecting strong brand fundamentals and ongoing commercial efforts.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered growth in Jornay prescriptions, market share and prescribers, a trend most likely to have continued in the fourth quarter.

The company remains focused on driving near- and long-term growth for Jornay PM. It is also working on expanding its sales force to increase awareness and adoption among prescribers. We expect management to provide more updates on the same on the upcoming earnings call.

The September 2024 acquisition of Ironshore Therapeutics added Jornay PM, a central nervous system stimulant for ADHD, to COLL’s commercial portfolio.

Collegium Pharmaceutical is also making good progress with its unique and differentiated portfolio of pain medicines. In the last reported quarter, the combined quarterly revenues from its pain portfolio reached an all-time high. Increasing sales of its pain medicines are likely to have aided COLL’s revenues in the fourth quarter.

The company remains committed to maximizing revenues from its pain portfolio in 2026 through a combination of driving demand and enhancing the profitability of each brand. Investors will be keen to get more updates on the same on the upcoming earnings call.

Last month, the company announced full-year guidance for 2026. Net product revenues are expected to be in the range of $805-$825 million, while Jornay PM net revenues are expected to be in the range of $190-$200 million.

Adjusted operating expenses are likely to have increased year over year in the to-be-reported quarter, reflecting higher commercialization costs for Jornay and other investment costs.

COLL’s Earnings Surprise History

Collegium Pharmaceutical has an excellent earnings surprise history. The company beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 10.63%. In the last reported quarter, COLL came up with an earnings surprise of 19.68%.

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Quote

Earnings Whispers for COLL

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Collegium Pharmaceutical this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: COLL has an Earnings ESP of -2.43% as the Most Accurate Estimate stands at $2.14 per share and the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.19 per share.

Zacks Rank: COLL currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Castle Biosciences CSTL has an Earnings ESP of +68.89% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

Castle Biosciences’ stock has risen 70.2% in the past six months. CSTL beat earnings estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed once, delivering an earnings surprise of 66.11%, on average. Castle Biosciences is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 26.

Amneal Pharmaceuticals AMRX has an Earnings ESP of +1.89% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Amneal Pharmaceuticals’ stock has risen 57.8% in the past six months. AMRX beat earnings estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed once, delivering an earnings surprise of 22.42%, on average. Amneal Pharmaceuticals is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 27.

Axsome Therapeutics AXSM has an Earnings ESP of +43.57% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of AXSM have rallied 57.9% in the past six months. Axsome Therapeutics beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, delivering an average surprise of 8.47%. Axsome Therapeutics is slated to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 23.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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