It has been about a month since the last earnings report for United Airlines (UAL). Shares have added about 5.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is United due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Earnings Beat in Q4
UAL's fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (excluding 9 cents from non-recurring items) of $3.10 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.98 but declined 4.9% on a year-over-year basis. The reported figure lies within the guided range of $3.00-$3.50.
Operating revenues of $15.4 billion outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate marginally by 0.1% and increased 4.8% year over year. Passenger revenues (which accounted for 90.4% of the top line) increased 4.9% year over year to $13.9 billion. UAL flights transported 45,679 passengers in the fourth quarter, up 3% year over year.
Cargo revenues fell 6% year over year to $490 million. Revenues from other sources rose 9.1% year over year to $981 million.
UAL’s diverse revenue sources contributed to its fourth-quarter results.These include premium cabin revenues, which went up 9% year over year, revenue from Basic Economy (up 7% year over year), and loyalty revenues (up 10%). This steady positive pattern has continued into 2026.
Airline traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, grew 5.9%. Capacity, measured in available seat miles, expanded 6.5%. Although traffic improved year over year, it failed to outpace capacity expansion. As a result, the consolidated load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) declined 0.4 points on a year-over-year basis to 81.9%.
Consolidated passenger revenue per available seat mile (a key measure of unit revenues) inched down 1.4% year over year. Total revenue per available seat mile decreased 1.6% year over year. The average yield per revenue passenger mile fell 0.9% year over year to 20.41 cents. The average aircraft fuel price per gallon grew 3.6% year over year to $2.49. Fuel gallons consumed were up 5.4% year over year.
Operating expenses (on a reported basis) increased 6.2% year over year to $14 billion. Consolidated unit cost or cost per available seat mile, excluding fuel, third-party business expenses, profit-sharing and special charges, inched up 0.4% year over year to 12.94 cents.
UAL exited the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $5.94 billion compared with $6.73 billion at the prior-quarter end. Long-term debt, finance leases and other financial liabilities were $20.5 billion compared with $20.8 billion at the end of the prior quarter.
UAL repurchased $29 million of shares in the fourth quarter of 2025.
UAL’s Outlook
For first-quarter 2026, UAL anticipates adjusted EPS between $1.00 and $1.50.
For 2026, UAL anticipates adjusted EPS between $12.00 and $14.00.Adjusted total capital expenditures for 2026 are anticipated to be less than $8 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted 29.28% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, United has a average Growth Score of C, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, United has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
United is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, Delta Air Lines (DAL), a stock from the same industry, has gained 3.1%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2025 more than a month ago.
Delta reported revenues of $16 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.9%. EPS of $1.55 for the same period compares with $1.85 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Delta is expected to post earnings of $0.72 per share, indicating a change of +56.5% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Delta. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.
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United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL): Free Stock Analysis Report Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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