Molson Coors Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, 2026 View Soft

Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP has posted fourth-quarter 2025 results, wherein the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while the bottom line beat the same. Both net sales and earnings experienced a decline from the year-ago period.

The company’s adjusted earnings of $1.21 per share declined 6.9% year over year but beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17.

Molson Coors Beverage Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Molson Coors Beverage Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Molson Coors Beverage Company Quote

Net sales dropped 2.7% year over year on a reported basis and 4% on a constant-currency basis to $2.66 billion, and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.71 billion. The decline was due to lower financial volumes, partly offset by an improved price and sales mix, and favorable currency.

Shares of this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company have risen 11.8% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 21% growth.

TAP Stock's Price Performance

Molson Coors’ Q4 Details

Financial volumes decreased 7.7% year over year due to lower shipments across the Americas and EMEA&APAC segments. Brand volumes fell 4.5%, with a 4.3% dip in the Americas and a 5% decline in the EMEA&APAC segment.

Net sales were positively influenced by the price and sales mix, which increased 3.7% year over year, driven by a favorable sales mix and higher net pricing. Net sales per hectoliter (hl) rose 5.5% on a reported basis and 4.1% on a constant-currency basis.

Gross profit decreased 6.7% year over year to $968.3 billion, and the gross margin fell 150 basis points (bps) to 36.4% in the quarter.

Marketing, general and administrative (MG&A) expenses fell 6% year over year on a reported basis to $610.9 million, driven mainly by approximately $30 million in lower short-term incentive compensation costs. This benefit was partly offset by an unfavorable foreign currency impact of $10.0 million and expenses associated with the global modernization of the enterprise resource planning (ERP) system.

Underlying earnings before taxes (EBT) declined 13% year over year to $296.8 million. On a constant-currency basis, underlying EBT declined 13.8%, led by lower financial volumes and cost inflation with respect to materials and manufacturing expenses, including an approximately $20 million unfavorable impact from Midwest Premium pricing. These headwinds were partially offset by reduced MG&A expenses and improved net pricing.

TAP’s Segmental Information

Americas: Net sales in the segment fell 5% year over year to $2.1 billion on a reported basis and also 5% on a constant-currency basis. The decline was due to lower financial volumes, offset by a favorable price and sales mix. Sales in the segment came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.1 billion.

Financial volumes were down 8.5% year over year, resulting from lower U.S. brand volumes. The decline also reflected an approximate 2% impact from reduced contract brewing volumes following the exit of contract brewing arrangements in the United States and Canada, as well as an additional approximate 2% impact from lower shipments, which resulted in reduced U.S. distributor inventories. Brand volumes in the Americas were down 4.3%, including a 5.1% decline in the United States due to the macroeconomic impacts of industry softness and a lower share performance.

The price and sales mix aided net sales by 3.5%, owing to a favorable sales mix from lower contract brewing volumes and a positive brand mix. Underlying EBT declined 19.1% on a constant-currency basis due to lower volumes and higher materials and manufacturing costs, including an approximately $20 million unfavorable impact from Midwest Premium pricing and ERP implementation costs. These pressures were partially offset by cost savings initiatives, improved net pricing, a favorable mix and lower MG&A expenses driven by roughly $20 million in reduced short-term incentive compensation.

EMEA & APAC: The segment’s net sales rose 6.1% year over year to $603.5 million on a reported basis and 0.1% on a constant-currency basis. Reported sales benefited from an improved price and sales mix, and favorable currency effects, partially offset by lower financial volumes. The price and sales mix improved 5.5%, driven by geographic mix, premiumization and higher factored brand volumes, along with improved net pricing. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s sales was pegged at $600 million.

Financial and brand volumes dipped 5.4% and 5%, respectively, due to lower volumes across all regions, led by soft market demand and a heightened competitive landscape. The segment’s underlying EBT increased 114.5% year over year on a constant-currency basis, driven by lower MG&A expenses from approximately $10 million in reduced short-term incentive compensation and targeted cost reductions, along with improved net pricing. These gains were partially offset by reduced financial volume.

Financial Updates for TAP

Molson Coors ended 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $896.5 million. As of Dec. 31, 2025, the company had a total debt of $6.29 billion, resulting in a net debt of $5.4 billion.

Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $1.8 billion in 2025. Moreover, the company generated an adjusted underlying free cash flow of $1.14 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025.

During 2025, TAP repurchased shares worth $647.9 million and paid out dividends of $376.3 million. On Feb. 18, 2026, the company's board declared a quarterly dividend of 48 cents a share, payable March 20, 2026, to its shareholders of Class A and Class B common stock of record as of March 6.

What to Expect From TAP in 2026?

For 2026, Molson Coors expects net sales to be broadly flat on a constant-currency basis, within a range of plus or minus 1% compared with 2025. Underlying EBT is anticipated to decline in the range of 15-18%, while underlying EPS is anticipated to decrease by 11%-15%.

It expects underlying depreciation and amortization to be $720 million, plus or minus 5%. The company forecasts an underlying effective tax rate of 22-24% for 2026. Underlying net interest expenses are anticipated to be $260 million (plus or minus 5%).

The company estimates a capital expenditure of $650 million (plus or minus 5%) for 2026. The underlying free cash flow is expected to be $1.1 billion, plus or minus 10%.

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