First Solar to Release Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

First Solar FSLR is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 24, after market close. The company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 1.9% in the last reported quarter. 

Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to be reflected in the upcoming quarterly results.

Factors That are Likely to Have Impacted FSLR’s Q4 Performance

During the fourth quarter of 2025, First Solar inaugurated a new $1.1 billion AI-enabled Louisiana manufacturing facility. The company is expected to benefit from higher production volumes, improved cost efficiencies and increased tax credit generation. Since the plant began production in mid-2025, the fourth quarter should reflect a fuller contribution of module output, supporting stronger revenues as shipments increase.

First Solar is expected to have benefited in the fourth quarter of 2025 primarily through a significant cash inflow and stronger earnings visibility tied to its Section 45X tax credit sale. The company expects to receive the remaining proceeds in the fourth quarter from the agreement to sell up to $391 million in advanced manufacturing tax credits. 

Sales of First Solar's products have been expanding due to the steadily rising demand for solar energy worldwide, supported by rising energy consumption, declining installation costs and increasing awareness of sustainable energy. This is expected to have a favorable impact on the upcoming results.

However, tariffs are likely to weigh modestly on First Solar’s fourth-quarter 2025 results by increasing import costs and slightly pressuring margins. The company expects tariff-related expenses on imported finished goods and raw materials, which are expected to have raised the cost of goods sold and reduced profitability. 

In the fourth quarter of 2025, First Solar’s Malaysia and Vietnam operations are expected to have had a mixed impact, as reduced production (due to weaker demand, pricing pressure and tariff uncertainties) is likely to have limited the contribution to shipments and revenues, slightly weighing on international sales and overall module volumes.

FSLR’s Q4 Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $5.22 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 43%.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pinned at $1.57 billion, implying a 3.9% increase year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Modules megawatt (MW) sold is pinned at 5,260.73 MW compared with 5,122 MW sold in the year-ago quarter.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for First Solar this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here as you will see below.
 

First Solar, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

First Solar, Inc. price-eps-surprise | First Solar, Inc. Quote

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -1.64%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Currently, First Solar carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Investors may consider the following players from the same sector, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Talos Energy TALO is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports fourth-quarter results on Feb. 24. It has an Earnings ESP of +30.49% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pinned at a loss of 27 cents per share, which implies a year-over-year decrease of 437.5%. 

Talen Energy Corporation TLN is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports fourth-quarter results on Feb. 26. It has an Earnings ESP of +32.41% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

TLN’s long-term (three to five years) earnings growth rate is 29.71%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at $2.71 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 49.7%.

Sempra Energy SRE is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports fourth-quarter results on Feb. 26. It has an Earnings ESP of +4.73% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

SRE’s long-term earnings growth rate is 7.33%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at $1.13 per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 24.7%.

 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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