BJRI to Post Q4 Earnings: Traffic & Cost Discipline in the Spotlight

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. BJRI is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Feb. 25, after the closing bell.

In the previous quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 500% while the revenues missed the same by 1.6%.

BJ's Restaurants’ earnings surpassed the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 155.6%.

How Are BJRI’s Estimates Placed for Q4?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is pegged at an earnings per share of 60 cents, up 27.7% year over year.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $351.9 million, indicating an increase of 2.2% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

Let us check out the factors that are likely to have influenced the quarter.

Key Factors to Note Ahead of BJRI’s Q4 Results

BJ’s Restaurants’ fourth-quarter 2025 top line is likely to have been aided by sustained traffic momentum that carried over from late third-quarter trends, supported by rising guest frequency across income and age cohorts. Improved value perception, better in-restaurant execution and higher guest satisfaction helped drive incremental visits, allowing sales growth to remain resilient despite modest check pressure.

The top line is also likely to have benefited from the continued popularity of the Pizookie Meal Deal, which drove both new guest acquisition and repeat visits. Seasonal menu innovation, including limited-time Pizookies, along with a sharper focus on social and influencer-led marketing, generated strong brand engagement and supported traffic growth. Additionally, the late-quarter rollout of the refreshed pizza platform helped reinforce customer interest and positioned the brand to capture higher engagement during the holiday period.

Considering the above-mentioned tailwinds, we predict comparable restaurant sales to grow 2.1% year over year. Our model predicts average weekly sales to increase 1.7% in fourth-quarter 2025. 

On the profitability side, BJRI is likely to have benefited from disciplined cost management and improved operating leverage as sales trends strengthened. Ongoing simplification initiatives, tighter labor scheduling driven by better forecasting and a focus on operational “table stakes” have helped to protect restaurant-level margins despite moderate food inflation. Gross margin improvements, stable labor costs as a percentage of sales and reduced pre-opening expenses have also supported earnings. As volumes improved into fourth-quarter 2025, these efficiency gains have allowed incremental revenues to flow through at a higher margin, supporting continued bottom-line expansion. For the quarter, we expect total costs and expenses to decrease 3% to $338.7 million.

What Our Model Indicates for BJRI

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for BJ's Restaurants this time around. The company does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for BJRI is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: BJRI currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy).

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are a few stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL has an Earnings ESP of +275.61% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Cracker Barrel’s loss per share is pegged at 10 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.38. CBRL’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average beat of 69.5%.

Sweetgreen, Inc. SG currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s loss per share is pegged at 31 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported adjusted loss per share of 25 cents. SG’s earnings missed the consensus estimate in the trailing three out of four quarters and reported in line once, the average miss being 33.9%.

Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.88% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Domino's earnings are expected to register a 9.6% year-over-year rise. Domino's earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with an average beat of 1.1%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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