Samsara Inc. (IOT): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Samsara Inc. on T K’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on IOT. Samsara Inc.'s share was trading at $25.42 as of February 6th. IOT’s forward P/E was 44.25 according to Yahoo Finance.

Samsara is the pioneer of the Connected Operations Cloud, providing a platform that allows businesses with large physical footprints—such as trucking fleets, construction firms, and energy companies—to track and analyze their assets in real time. Using plug-and-play IoT sensors and AI-powered cameras, Samsara collects data from vehicles and equipment, which their software then analyzes to prevent accidents, optimize fuel consumption, and automate maintenance schedules.

Unlike traditional GPS providers, Samsara operates as a pure software-as-a-service company, serving as the centralized “brain” for businesses in the physical economy. The company’s growth is driven by the digitization of industries still reliant on paper and legacy systems, with trillions of dollars spent annually in transportation, construction, and utilities. Samsara’s AI video safety segment, which monitors distracted or drowsy drivers, is expanding rapidly and materially reducing insurance costs for clients.

Their “land and expand” strategy encourages adoption across trucks, warehouses, equipment, and workers, generating high net retention and strong recurring revenue growth. Regulatory mandates for digital logging and safety tracking further create near-term, forced demand for Samsara’s platform. Risks include economic sensitivity, as downturns in physical industries could slow new customer growth, as well as high valuation and potential competition from legacy providers like Verizon Connect and emerging startups.

However, Samsara’s platform-centric approach gives it a technological edge. The company is uniquely positioned to transform how operations are managed in the physical world, offering a compelling combination of recurring revenue, operational leverage, and growth potential. As industries continue modernizing, Samsara’s market-leading position and expanding use cases create multiple catalysts for upside, while the platform’s high retention and regulatory tailwinds provide stability even in uncertain economic conditions.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Samsara Inc. (IOT) by Compounding Your Wealth in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s record ARR growth, strong AI integration, rapid expansion of large customers, and international adoption. IOT’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 33.68% since our coverage. T K shares a similar perspective but emphasizes Samsara’s platform capabilities, regulatory tailwinds, and operational leverage, providing a slightly broader view of the company’s growth potential.

Samsara Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 42 hedge fund portfolios held IOT at the end of the third quarter which was 41 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of IOT as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than IOT and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.