Markel Group Inc. (MKL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on MKL on Casteleyn Partnership Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MKL. MKL's share was trading at $2,102.15 as of February 6th. MKL’s trailing and forward P/E were 12.42 and 14.62 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Markel Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the insurance business in the United States and internationally. MRKL’s full year 2025 results reinforce the long-term thesis that the company is steadily strengthening its core insurance engine while maintaining its identity as a multi-decade compounder. The combined ratio improved to 92.9%, down from 95.9% in 2024, confirming underwriting profitability.

On a weighted basis across U.S., international, and reinsurance operations, the full-year combined ratio was 94.6%, though reinsurance remained a drag at 105.9%. Management has addressed this structural weakness decisively: under new insurance head Simon Wilson, Markel exited global reinsurance, selling renewal rights and placing the unit into run-off. While legacy contracts will roll off over three years, this move should lift future profitability and sharpen operational focus.

Premium growth has returned, with net premiums written rising 6% year-over-year in Q4 to $1.84 billion, marking a turnaround from last year’s decline. Higher scale supports float expansion, the core engine that funds Markel’s investment portfolio. Although the expense ratio rose to 36.7% due to higher personnel costs, severance, and a shift toward higher-expense international markets, a sharp improvement in the loss ratio drove overall underwriting gains.

Within Ventures, Industrial revenue rose 4% to $3.93 billion but faced margin pressure from input costs, while Consumer delivered stronger profit growth, aided by acquisitions and construction demand. Investment income increased 5.7%, though lower interest rates may create headwinds ahead.

Capital allocation remains a key lever: $429.5 million in shares were repurchased in 2025, with $1.5 billion still authorized. Based on intrinsic value estimates of $2,397–$2,905 per share, the stock appears undervalued. With a 16.7% earnings CAGR since 2018 and improving underwriting discipline, Markel enters 2026 positioned for potential buyback acceleration and continued compounding.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Markel Group Inc. (MKL) by Value Don’t Lie in May 2025, which highlighted the mini-Berkshire structure, intrinsic value undervaluation, activist pressure, and capital allocation upside. MKL’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 16% since our coverage. Casteleyn Partnership shares a similar view but emphasizes on improved underwriting results and the reinsurance exit strengthening 2025 execution.

MKL is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 38 hedge fund portfolios held MKL at the end of the third quarter which was 40 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of MKL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MKL and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW 

Disclosure: None.