A single policy shift could unlock billions for Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) — and investors are watching closely. According to JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, every 100,000 H200 GPUs shipped to China could generate roughly $3 billion in incremental revenue, making export approvals one of the biggest potential upside catalysts for the stock.
The opportunity exists because U.S. export policy has quietly changed. Nvidia's H200 shipments to China and Macau are no longer under automatic denial, but instead subject to case-by-case review — reopening the door to future sales.
Billions In Revenue Waiting On Approval
Sur said China remains a major source of demand, even as shipments remain in limbo. The firm estimates that each 100,000-unit shipment could drive about $3 billion in revenue, highlighting how approvals could translate into meaningful financial upside.
The timing remains uncertain, but the demand backdrop is clear.
Chinese customers continue to show a strong appetite for AI compute, and any easing in export approvals could immediately convert that demand into revenue.
Backlog And AI Demand Strengthen The Bull Case
The China opportunity comes as Nvidia already sits on massive global demand. The company has disclosed a backlog exceeding $500 billion, with hyperscalers continuing to invest heavily in AI infrastructure.
Sur expects Nvidia to deliver another beat-and-raise quarter, supported by rising Blackwell shipments and strong pricing.
Even without China, demand continues to outstrip supply. But if export approvals accelerate, China could become an additional growth lever layered on top of an already powerful expansion cycle.
With billions in potential revenue tied to export decisions, China represents more than just a restricted market — it's a wildcard that could quickly amplify Nvidia's next phase of growth.
Image: Shutterstock
