Trump Tariffs Reshaped By Supreme Court: Which Countries Gain, Which Lose?

The Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Donald Trump's tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act reshuffles the global trade deck, but it does not eliminate the tariff regime. Instead, it creates a new map of winners and losers.

Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips said Sunday that the ruling, combined with Trump's new Section 122 tariff, reduces the increase in the effective tariff rate since the start of 2025 from just over 10 percentage points to 9 percentage points.

That shift may sound small, but the country-level impact varies sharply.

Supreme Court Hits Trump Tariffs: What Changed?

The Court's 6-3 ruling invalidated tariffs imposed under IEEPA, including "reciprocal" tariffs and emergency tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico.

Within hours, Trump imposed a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

By Saturday, he raised it to 15%, the legal maximum under that provision. The surcharge runs through July 24 and could later be replaced by longer-lasting Section 301 tariffs if approved by Congress.

Who Wins, Who Loses After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling?

Several major trading partners see tariff relief relative to the pre-ruling baseline.

Mainland China's effective tariff rate falls by 6.6 percentage points to 14.3%. Mexico's drops 1.7 points to 3.1%. Canada's declines 1.1 points to 6.7%.

Brazil sees the largest reduction, down 10 percentage points to 2.4%. Indonesia falls 3.3 points to 14.5%. Bangladesh drops 4 points to 15%.

Vietnam and South Africa also benefit, with tariff reductions of 2.4 and 2 points, respectively.

For these economies, lower effective rates could support export volumes in coming months, especially as importers rebuild inventories.

Other trading partners will likely see higher tariff rates under the new Section 122 framework than they faced before the Supreme Court ruling.

The European Union's effective rate rises 0.9 percentage points to 10.9%. Japan increases 0.6 points to 11.7%. The United Kingdom climbs 2.9 points to 10.9%.

Singapore jumps 2.7 points to 9.3%. Argentina rises 3.5 points to 21.4%. Australia increases 1.6 points to 5.5%.

“First, it is not yet clear how trading partners with reciprocal tariffs under 15% would be treated, but we assume that this will mean an increase in the tariff rate, at least in the short run,” Phillips said.

These new dynamics may introduce friction and heighten volatility across both global trade flows and the performance of country-specific exchange-traded funds.

According to CountryETFTracker data, the top-performing U.S.-listed country ETFs year-to-date are: iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (NYSE:EWY) (+45.10%), iShares MSCI Peru ETF (NYSE:EPU) (+25.40%), iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSE:EWZ) (+24.57%), iShares MSCI Thailand ETF (NYSE:THD) (+21.97%), and iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSE:TUR) (+21.70%).

Tariff Changes By Country After Supreme Court Ruling