What a brutal six months it’s been for Coty. The stock has dropped 31.2% and now trades at $2.62, rattling many shareholders. This was partly driven by its softer quarterly results and might have investors contemplating their next move.
Is now the time to buy Coty, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free.
Why Do We Think Coty Will Underperform?
Even though the stock has become cheaper, we're cautious about Coty. Here are three reasons we avoid COTY and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Core Business Falling Behind as Organic Sales Decline
When analyzing revenue growth, we care most about organic revenue growth. This metric captures a business’s performance excluding one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures as well as foreign currency fluctuations.
Coty’s demand has been falling over the last eight quarters, and on average, its organic sales have declined by 4.8% year on year.
2. Shrinking Operating Margin
Operating margin is a key profitability metric because it accounts for all expenses enabling a business to operate smoothly, including marketing and advertising, IT systems, wages, and other administrative costs.
Analyzing the trend in its profitability, Coty’s operating margin decreased by 9 percentage points over the last year. This raises questions about the company’s expense base because its revenue growth should have given it leverage on its fixed costs, resulting in better economies of scale and profitability. Coty’s performance was poor no matter how you look at it - it shows that costs were rising and it couldn’t pass them onto its customers. Its operating margin for the trailing 12 months was 1.2%.
3. EPS Trending Down
Analyzing the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company's incremental sales were profitable – for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.
Sadly for Coty, its EPS declined by 14.3% annually over the last three years while its revenue grew by 3.3%. This tells us the company became less profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded.
Final Judgment
Coty doesn’t pass our quality test. After the recent drawdown, the stock trades at 8.3× forward P/E (or $2.62 per share). While this valuation is optically cheap, the potential downside is huge given its shaky fundamentals. There are better investments elsewhere. We’d suggest looking at one of Charlie Munger’s all-time favorite businesses.
Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Coty
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Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as
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