Cheniere Energy to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

Cheniere Energy, Inc. LNG is set to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 26. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.83 per share on revenues of $5.17 billion.

Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have influenced the liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) exporter’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. But, before that, it is worth taking a look at Cheniere Energy’s performance in the previously reported quarter.

Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, this Houston, TX-based oil and gas storage and transportation company beat on earnings, driven by favorable changes in derivative valuations, higher LNG margins from improved pricing and stronger LNG sales revenues supported by robust operational performance. Cheniere Energy reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.75, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.56.  However, the company’s quarterly revenues of $4.4 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.7 billion.

LNG’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed in one, delivering an average surprise of 79.95%.

This is depicted in the graph below: 

Cheniere Energy, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Cheniere Energy, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Cheniere Energy, Inc. Quote

LNG’s Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has not witnessed any movement in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates an 11.55% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a 16.66% increase from the year-ago period’s level.

Factors to Consider Ahead of LNG’s Q4 Results

Cheniere Energy makes money primarily through long-term, take-or-pay contracts in which customers pay fixed fees to reserve liquefaction capacity at its LNG export terminals, providing steady and predictable revenues. The company also earns income by purchasing natural gas, converting it into LNG and selling it in global markets, benefiting from price differentials and short-term trading opportunities.

LNG’s revenues are likely to have improved in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues implies an increase from the year-ago quarter’s level. This can be attributed to the strong increase in LNG sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LNG revenues implies an increase of 16.4% from the year-ago quarter’s level.

Robust LNG demand from Asia and Europe is likely to have supported higher shipment volumes. Long-term contracts covering more than 80% of volumes are expected to have stabilized cash flows despite spot market volatility.

Rising expenses may, however, weigh on results. Cheniere Energy’s third-quarter total costs and expenses were 24% higher than the year-ago quarter’s figure, and this upward trajectory is expected to have persisted in the quarter to be reported. Combined spending on cost of sales and depreciation, amortization, and accretion, along with persistent inflationary pressures, might have continued to weigh on margins.

What Does Our Model Say About LNG Stock?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Cheniere Energy this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat on earnings. This is exactly the case here.

LNG’s Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +0.48%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

LNG’s Zacks Rank: Cheniere Energy currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some firms from the other space that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Delek US Holdings DK has an Earnings ESP of +14.58% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.  The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 27.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Delek US Holdings is a downstream energy company engaged in petroleum refining, logistics, and fuel marketing, serving wholesale and retail customers across the United States.

Fulgent Genetics FLGT has an Earnings ESP of +66.67% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.  The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 27, before the market opens.

Fulgent Genetics is a technology-driven laboratory services company that provides genetic testing, molecular diagnostics, and precision medicine solutions for healthcare providers and patients.

NIQ Global Intelligence plc NIQ has an Earnings ESP of +9.59% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is set to report earnings on Feb. 27, before the market opens.

NIQ Global Intelligence is a consumer intelligence and data analytics company that delivers insights and measurement solutions to help businesses understand consumer behavior and market trends.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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