Lowe's Q4 Earnings on Deck: Is Another Beat in the Cards?

As Lowe's Companies, Inc. LOW prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Feb. 25, before the opening bell, investors are eager to see if the company can beat market expectations. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $20.36 billion, implying 9.8% growth from the prior year. Meanwhile, the consensus mark for earnings has remained stable over the past 30 days at $1.95 per share and suggests a 1% increase from the year-ago period.

LOW has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.1%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Mooresville, NC-based company’s bottom line outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 3%.

Lowe's Companies, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Lowe's Companies, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Lowe's Companies, Inc. Quote

Key Factors to Observe Ahead of LOW's Q4 Earnings

Lowe’s fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from continued execution of its “Total Home Strategy,” which positions the company as a comprehensive solutions provider. By catering to both professional contractors and do-it-yourself customers, Lowe’s has broadened its addressable market and strengthened customer loyalty. Its ability to blend in-store expertise with digital capabilities allows customers to plan, source and execute projects more seamlessly, which is likely to have supported traffic, ticket growth and overall engagement during the quarter. We expect comparable sales to improve 0.2% in the quarter under review.

The company’s strategic push into the higher-value Professional segment is also likely to have contributed positively. The integration of Foundation Building Materials has expanded Lowe’s presence in interior building materials and strengthened its distribution network, improving service levels for larger and more complex projects. By embedding supplier systems into its sales platform and enabling an “extended aisle” assortment, Lowe’s empowers associates to access a wider range of products for Pros. 

Technological innovation remains another meaningful tailwind. Lowe’s investments in artificial intelligence and digital tools have simplified project planning for customers while equipping store associates with real-time insights. AI-driven demand forecasting and inventory management are likely to have helped optimize product availability during the quarter, balancing service levels with cost discipline. At the same time, the company’s emphasis on high-growth categories such as major appliances, home services and private brands, supported by a market delivery network capable of handling installations nationwide, is likely to have supported margins. With many homeowners choosing to renovate rather than relocate, Lowe’s assortment and service capabilities appear well-aligned with prevailing housing trends.

On the other hand, macroeconomic headwinds are likely to have remained a constraint. Elevated interest rates, cautious consumer sentiment and muted housing turnover may have weighed on demand for larger discretionary home improvement projects. While repair and maintenance categories tend to be more resilient, big-ticket remodels and more ambitious renovations could have been deferred. This softer demand backdrop, particularly for project-driven categories, may have tempered volume growth and limited the pace of overall expansion in the fourth quarter.

What the Zacks Model Says About LOW’s Q4 Earnings

As investors prepare for Lowe’s fourth-quarter announcement, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lowe’s this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Lowe’s has an Earnings ESP of +8.32% but a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Dollar General Corporation DG currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.82% and a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $1.58, implying a 6% year-over-year decline. 

Dollar General’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues stands at $10.75 billion, which indicates an increase of 4.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. DG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.9%, on average.

Chewy, Inc. CHWY has an Earnings ESP of +0.36% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. CHWY’s top line is anticipated to advance year over year when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.26 billion, which suggests a 0.3% rise from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The consensus estimate for Chewy’s fourth-quarter earnings is pinned at 28 cents a share, flat year over year. CHWY has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.7%, on average.

Costco Wholesale Corporation COST has an Earnings ESP of +0.87% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. COST’s top line is expected to advance year over year when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2026 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $69.22 billion, which suggests an 8.6% jump from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Costco’s second-quarter earnings stands at $4.53 per share, calling for 12.7% growth from the year-ago quarter. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.5%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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