Can AMERISAFE's Higher Premiums Cushion the Expense Blow in Q4?

Workers’ compensation insurance provider, AMERISAFE, Inc. AMSF, is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 25, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at 57 cents per shareon revenues of $80.31 million. 

The fourth-quarter earnings estimate remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates 14.9% decline from the year-ago level. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year rise of 9.3%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMERISAFE’s revenues is pegged at $310.06 million, implying an increase of 3.3% year over year. But the consensus mark for the 2025 EPS is pegged at $2.25, indicating a 11.1% year-over-year decline.

AMERISAFE beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters, met once and missed on the other occasion, with the average surprise being 2.4%.

AMERISAFE, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

AMERISAFE, Inc. price-eps-surprise | AMERISAFE, Inc. Quote

Q4 Earnings Whispers for AMERISAFE

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AMSF this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

AMSF has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping AMERISAFE’s Q4 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $73.5 million, up 10.5% year over year. This is likely to have led to top-line growth, partially offset by lower investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income is pegged at $6.7 million, down 3.5% year over year.

Increased operating expenses are expected to have led to a decrease in profit levels, making an earnings beat uncertain. The consensus mark for net loss ratio is pegged at 59.8%, higher than 56.4% a year ago.

Net underwriting expense ratio is pinned at 31%, above the year-ago level of 29.7%. The consensus estimate for net combined ratio is pegged at 90.8% for the fourth quarter, up from 86.1% a year ago.

How Did Other Insurers Perform?

Several bigger insurance companies, including Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. MRSH, Aon plc AON and The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. HIG, have already reported their financial results for the December quarter of 2025. Here’s how they had performed:

Marsh & McLennan Companies reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.12, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.6%, thanks to solid growth in the Risk and Insurance Services and Consulting unit, particularly from the Guy Carpenter, Mercer and Marsh Management Consulting businesses. However, the upside was partially offset by MRSH’s elevated operating expenses.

Aon reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.85 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.9%, driven by solid organic revenue growth, robust new business and high retention across key solution lines like Commercial Risk and Reinsurance Solutions. Growth in insurance-linked securities and advisory demand in Retirement services also contributed, along with net restructuring savings that supported AON’s margin expansion.

Hartford Insurance reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted operating earnings of $4.06 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 27.9% on the back of higher net investment income, favorable PYD and lower P&C catastrophe losses. Also, higher earned premiums and improvement in the Personal Insurance underlying loss and LAE ratio benefited the results, partially offset by HIG’s increased expense ratios in Employee Benefits and P&C.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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