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Salesforce Q4 Preview: Analyst Expects Strong Earnings, Brushes Off 'AI Ghost Trade Narrative'

By Chris Katje | February 24, 2026, 11:31 AM

Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM) is set to report fourth-quarter financial results Wednesday after market close, with its shares trading near 52-week lows.

Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report, and the key items to watch.

Salesforce Q4 Earnings Estimates

Wall Street expects Salesforce to report October-December revenue of $11.18 billion, up from $9.99 billion a year earlier, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in seven of the last 10 quarters, but missed in the most recently reported third quarter.

Analysts expect Salesforce to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.69, down from $2.78 in the year-earlier period. The firm beat EPS projections in four straight quarters and in nine of the last 10 quarters overall.

Previous guidance from the company calls for fourth-quarter revenue in a range of $11.13 billion to $11.23 billion and earnings per share in a range of $3.02 to $3.04.

What Experts Are Saying Ahead Of Salesforce Q4 Results

With Salesforce stock trading near the one-year lows, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the company is fighting against several narratives.

"Salesforce will be reporting its FY4Q26 results where we expect to see solid results from Benioff & Co. despite the software storm that has been developing around CRM over the past year and has accelerated over the past few months with this ‘AI Ghost Trade' narrative," Ives said in a recent investor note.

The analyst maintained an Outperform rating on Salesforce stock with a price target of $375. The shares traded near $185 apiece on Tuesday.

The company may beat consensus estimates for the fourth quarter, according to Ives.

"We believe the company still has a strong pipeline to capitalize on given the significant amount of data collected across enterprise systems over the past decade," he said. "While the company is seeing a slower than expected monetization of its Agentforce strategy across its enterprise installed base, CRM's potential to monetize its vast installed base of over 150,000 customers, which includes 90% of the Fortune 500, is high."

KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader is more cautious heading into the earnings report, recently lowering the price target on Salesforce from $400 to $300 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Still, Ader believes the company's Agentforce could be emerging from its trial phase.

"Channel conversations have finally turned on Agentforce," he said. "We are beginning to hear pilots and trials turn into actual contracts and add-ons to existing contracts."

Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods tells investors that Salesforce shares have fallen after five of its last six earnings reports, with the stock having a short rally after the last report.

"Salesforce has a chance to rebuke the AI disruption narrative that has hurt its recent stock performance," Woods said in a weekly newsletter. The market expert said Salesforce has been a poster child for the "AI disruption trade."

Key Items To Watch In Salesforce Q4 Results

One item that is worth watching, but probably won't be covered by management is potential contracts with ICE, as a report said employees were upset about potentially working with the government immigration agency.

Salesforce has reportedly pitched ICE on using its Agentforce AI technology, a move that could cause employee conflict based on early feedback. Employees signed a letter for Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff calling on the leader to distance the company from working with ICE and to publicly denounce the actions of the government agency.

Another topic that could come into play would be the company's Super Bowl commercial that featured content creator MrBeast and a giveaway. The commercial highlighted the company's Slack segment and the earnings report and call could provide details on if this segment saw a lift in new contracts from the ad.

The company has a recent history of beating analyst estimates and its third-quarter revenue narrowly missed. Strong financial results and guidance could help lift shares after recently hitting new 52-week lows.

Benioff highlighted the company's remaining performance obligations and pipeline of future revenue. Investors and analysts likely want to see those comments quantified into strong Q4 results and guidance.

Salesforce Stock Price Action

Salesforce stock was up 3.9% to $185.20 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $174.57 to $313.70. Salesforce shares are down 30% year-to-date in 2026 and lower by about 40% over the last 52 weeks.

Image: Shutterstock

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