JPM Signals IB Strength, NII Growth & Tech Spending Jump in 2026

JPMorgan’s JPM latest investor presentation signals a cautiously optimistic 2026 outlook. At its Feb. 23 company update, management projected moderate earnings expansion, sustained investments in technology and artificial intelligence (AI), and stable profitability targets, while acknowledging macroeconomic and competitive headwinds.

Driven by a steady operating backdrop across core banking activities, JPM anticipates total net interest income (NII) of $104.5 billion for 2026, slightly above the prior mentioned $103 billion. Core NII, excluding markets, is projected to be $95 billion, with a modest year-over-year uptick in lending and deposit-related businesses.

The Wall Street lender expects momentum in its core banking franchise to continue. Retail deposits are projected to resume growth following a softer phase, while card lending is set to expand.

Checking account balances are projected to rise in the low to mid-single-digit range, supported by resilient consumer spending and borrowing trends.

Will Technology Investments Raise Costs for JPM?

JPMorgan reiterated its expenses guidance for 2026. The bank projects adjusted expenses of $105 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 9.4%. The spending plan incorporates continued outlays for branch upgrades, hiring, technology enhancements and broader growth initiatives.

Technology remains a central focus for JPMorgan. The company plans to allocate $19.8 billion toward tech initiatives in 2026, a 10% increase from the prior year. Executives highlighted AI and machine learning as key drivers of productivity and revenue gains, noting that analytical AI tools are already contributing to improved performance across multiple segments.

Importantly, the bank reaffirmed its through-the-cycle return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) goal of 17%, underscoring management’s confidence in maintaining disciplined profitability even as it invests heavily in modernization.

JPM’s Expectations for IB & Trading Amid Volatility

Amid persistent volatility in equity markets, particularly within high-growth technology and software names, JPMorgan struck a notably constructive tone on deal activity and capital markets momentum. While market swings might dampen investor sentiment, the bank indicated that its advisory pipeline remains largely intact.

Management expects investment banking (IB) fees to rise in the mid-teen percentage in the first quarter of 2026, potentially trending toward the high teens.

The resilience in IB fees reflects that companies are still seeking scale, cost synergies and technology capabilities to remain competitive, particularly in sectors undergoing digital transformation. In addition, corporates with strong balance sheets are using volatility as an opportunity to pursue acquisitions at more attractive valuations.

In terms of the trading business, JPMorgan projects markets revenues to grow in the mid-teen range as well, supported by elevated volumes during bouts of volatility.

JPM’s Price Performance & Zacks Rank

In the past six months, shares of JPMorgan have inched up 0.9% compared with the industry’s 8.8% growth.

Currently, JPM carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Competitive Landscape

In its recent investor presentation, Bank of America BAC projected 2026 NII (on a fully taxable equivalent basis) to grow 5-7% year over year. Also, BAC provided guidance on non-interest expense growth and operating leverage.

Bank of America expects expenses to rise modestly in the first quarter and deliver 200 basis points of operating leverage in 2026 overall.

Citigroup C expects NII (excluding Markets) to increase 5-6% on a year-over-year basis in 2026. Management anticipates an efficiency ratio of 60%, with another year of positive operating leverage.

Citigroup continues to target a ROTCE of 10-11% in 2026.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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