How Should You Play ASTS Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings Release?

AST SpaceMobile ASTS is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on March 2, 2026, after market closes. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues and earnings is pegged at $40.69 million and a loss of 18 cents per share, respectively. Over the past 60 days, the earnings estimate for ASTS for fiscal 2025 has declined 0.94%, and for fiscal 2026, it has decreased by 21.62%.

Earnings Surprise History

The company delivered a negative four-quarter earnings surprise of 67.29%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 150.00%.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ASTS this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

ASTS currently has an ESP of +2.86% with a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping the Upcoming Results

During the quarter, ASTS launched Bluebird 6, its most advanced satellite to date, into low earth orbit. This was the largest commercial communication array ever deployed in low earth orbit. The system is 3x larger and capable of delivering 10x capacity compared to ASTS’ Bluebird 1-5 satellites.

ASTS has added two new manufacturing sites in Texas and Florida to expand its operations in the country. The site in Midland, TX, will manufacture BlueBird satellites from raw materials through finished spacecraft. The other facility is situated in Homestead, FL.

In the quarter under review, ASTS has signed a 10-year commercial agreement with the Saudi Telecom Company. stc group is the first in the region to adopt direct-to-device satellite broadband connectivity. The collaboration aims to deliver seamless 4G and 5G mobile services to businesses, the government sector and consumers across underserved remote regions. These factors are expected to be reflected in the upcoming quarterly results.

However, the company faces stiff competition in the satellite communication space from other major players such as ViaSat, Inc. VSAT and Iridium Communications, Inc. IRDM. Viasat has completed the payload module for the third ViaSat-3 (APAC) satellite at its own facilities. The company is now preparing for a scheduled launch in 2026. VSAT has confirmed the launch and initial signal acquisition of ViaSat-3 F2 in November 2025. This new satellite is designed to double the bandwidth capacity of its fleet and expand service across the Americas region for commercial, broadband, and defense customers, enabling Viasat to offer faster and better Internet services. The company is also rapidly expanding its partner network worldwide. This can pose a threat to ASTS’ satcom expansion initiatives. Fluctuating raw material prices and supply chain issues are also impacting ASTS’ growth prospects.

Price Performance

Over the past year, ASTS has gained 213.8% compared to the industry’s growth of 48.2%. However, it has underperformed peers like ViaSat but outperformed Iridium over this period. Viasat has increased 452.7%, while Iridium has declined 25.1% during this period.

Key Valuation Metric of ASTS

From a valuation standpoint, ASTS is currently trading at a premium compared to the industry. Going by the price/sales ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 113.43 forward sales, higher than 4.84 for the industry.

Investment Considerations

AST SpaceMobile is rapidly expanding its satcom portfolio and collaborating with major telecom players such as AT&T, Verizon and Rakuten to bolster its growth prospects. Investors are betting big on next-generation satcom technology that can eliminate issues of legacy ground network infrastructure. However, there are some risk factors that can undermine ASTS’ growth.

The company is affected by unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, such as rising inflation, higher interest rates, volatility in the capital markets, imposition of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. Fluctuations in satellite material prices due to these factors increase capital costs and affect its financial condition. Adverse movements in foreign exchange rates are also worrisome.

The company faces severe competition from existing and new industry leaders like SpaceX’s Starlink, ViaSat and Globalstar, which are developing satellite communications technology using LEO constellations. It competes indirectly with terrestrial wireline and wireless communications companies that invest in underdeveloped areas. Hence, to combat such competitive pressure, ASTS has to continuously customize its network offering per needs, enhance the cost-effectiveness of its products and services, and boost the satellite data networks that increase operating costs and reduce margins.

Commercial revenues have not ramped up yet, and it’s highly dependent on government contracts. Any changes in federal policies can impact its revenue growth.

End Note

Growing operating expenses and high capital investments needed for the development of advanced satcom technology will continue to impede margins in the near term. Owing to the stock’s premium valuation, we believe investors should remain cautious as macroeconomic factors, or economic downturns, can significantly impact overvalued stocks like ASTS. Downward estimate revision underscores investors’ bearish sentiment about the stock’s growth potential. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #5. Hence, investors should avoid investing in ASTS stock at present.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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