Nasdaq Stress Gauge Just Hit 2022 Levels - Is A Short-Term Bottom Brewing?

Options traders are suddenly betting against the very stocks that have been powering the market higher. Hedging activity across the Nasdaq has surged to levels not seen since the last bear market bottom, signaling a sharp shift in sentiment around key leaders like Nvidia Corp(NASDAQ:NVDA), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Apple Inc(NASDAQ:AAPL).

Extreme Hedging Hits Nasdaq Leaders

The Nasdaq-100's put-to-call ratio has climbed to 1.2, its highest level since the 2022 bear-market low, noted The Kobeissi Letter in an X post:

Outside of that capitulation phase, this marks one of the most aggressive spikes in defensive positioning in over a decade.

The move is centered on the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), the ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100. When put demand rises this quickly, it signals institutional investors are actively buying protection against downside risk rather than positioning for continued upside.

This kind of shift typically emerges when uncertainty begins to rise beneath the surface.

Broader Market Hedging Is Rising Too

The signal isn't limited to tech. The S&P 500's put-to-call ratio has climbed to 0.9, its highest level since April 2025 — a period that coincided with a sharp but temporary volatility spike.

Meanwhile, the total dollar value of puts now exceeds calls by one of the widest margins seen in the past two years. That confirms this isn't just statistical noise — real capital is moving defensively into hedges tied to major ETFs like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY).

Fear Spikes Often Appear Near Turning Points

Historically, extreme hedging tends to cluster near inflection points. The 2022 market bottom formed amid peak put demand, while similar spikes in 2024 and 2025 aligned with short-term corrections that eventually stabilized.

That puts market leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple at a critical moment.

The options market isn't predicting the outcome.

But it is signaling that investors are preparing for a move.

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