Abercrombie's Q4 Earnings Upcoming: Here's What You Should Know

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on March 4, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.67 billion, indicating 5.3% growth from the year-ago quarter. For quarterly earnings, the consensus mark is pegged at $3.56 per share, implying a drop of 0.3% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings has been stable in the past 30 days.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the consensus estimate by 10.3%. ANF has delivered an earnings surprise of 8.2%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Factors Likely to Impact Results

Abercrombie’s quarterly performance is likely to have benefited from its Always Forward plan, brand strength and store-optimization efforts. The company has been strengthening its brand portfolio and enhancing its agile operating model, with the Read & React inventory approach remaining central to execution. Digitally, ANF continues to elevate the customer experience through faster shipping, better product discovery and greater localization, supported by ongoing technology investments to advance omnichannel engagement. ANF’s brands have been strong and are well-poised to grow across their sizable addressable markets.

Last month, management issued an updated view for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2025. Management highlighted that the company experienced record quarter-to-date net sales through December, aligned with its projections. The company saw balanced growth across its regions, brands and channels. While the Hollister brand had a robust holiday season and is likely to deliver another year of mid-teens sales growth for fiscal 2025, it witnessed a robust customer response in the namesake brand over the holidays, anticipating sales growth in the low single digits for the fourth quarter.

Management projected fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 net sales to grow around 5%. Net income per share is likely to come in the bracket of $3.50-$3.60 compared with $3.40-$3.70 forecasted earlier. Operating margin is still likely to come around 14%. Share repurchases are likely to be around $100 million and diluted weighted average shares will be about 47 million for the to-be-reported quarter. Our model expects sales to rise nearly 5% and an adjusted operating margin of 14%. We anticipate earnings per share of $3.52 for fourth-quarter fiscal 2025. For fiscal 2025, management predicts net sales growth of at least 6% with an operating margin projected to be around 13%. Net income per share is currently envisioned to be in the band of $10.30-$10.40. Our model expects sales to rise 6.4% and an adjusted operating margin of 12.5%. We anticipate earnings per share of $10.38 for fiscal 2025.

Amid a tough operating landscape, heightened tariffs are adding cost pressures. The revised outlook includes the anticipated impact of tariffs on goods imported into the United States in accordance with trade policies as of Jan. 9, 2026. However, this does not include any other potential future trade policy changes imposed by the United States or other countries. Net of planned mitigation efforts, the full-year outlook assumes nearly $90 million of tariff expense or 170 basis points as a percent of net sales. In addition, higher expenses resulting from inflation and increased investment are likely to have been concerns.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Abercrombie this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Abercrombie currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.24% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

ANF’s Stock Performance & Valuation Picture

From a valuation perspective, Abercrombie is trading at a discount relative to industry benchmarks. The company has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 9.52X, lower than the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry’s average of 18.70X.
 
The recent market movements show that ANF’s shares have gained 0.6% in the past six months compared with the industry's 12.7% growth.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Dollar General Corporation DG currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.64% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register growth in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

The consensus mark for DG’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $10.8 billion, which indicates a 4.4% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for Dollar General’s quarterly earnings has moved a penny in the past 30 days to $1.58 per share. The consensus estimate indicates a drop of 6% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. DG has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.9%.

Ross Stores, Inc. ROST currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.39% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register growth in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. 

The consensus mark for ROST’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $6.4 billion, which indicates a 7.8% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for ROST’s quarterly earnings has been stable in the past 30 days at $1.87 per share. The consensus estimate indicates an increase of 4.5% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. ROST has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.7%.

lululemon athletica LULU currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank of 3. LULU is likely to register top-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $11.1 billion, which indicates 4.6% growth from the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for earnings has moved down a couple of cents in the past 30 days to $4.74 per share, which implies a 22.8% decrease from the year-ago quarter's actual. LULU has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.8%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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