RBC Capital Lowers Mosaic (MOS) Outlook Following Earnings Miss and Cash Flow Concerns

The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) is included among the 13 Best Long-Term Dividend Stocks to Invest in Right Now.

On February 26, RBC Capital lowered its price recommendation on The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) to $28 from $29. It maintained a Sector Perform rating on the stock after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q4 earnings. The firm believes 2026 could remain a tough year. Phosphate margins are likely to stay under pressure, as high input costs continue to weigh on profitability. Challenges in Brazil’s agricultural market and increased capital spending are also expected to limit cash flow.

During the company’s Q4 2025 earnings call, CEO Bruce Bodine acknowledged that the quarter did not meet expectations. He said weaker phosphate demand in the United States was the main reason behind the softer results. He also noted that conditions were starting to improve. Demand began to recover as farmers in North America prepared for the spring planting season. He added that global agricultural fundamentals remained supportive, which should help demand over time.

Bodine pointed to the company’s operational progress during the year. Mosaic stayed on track with its efforts to improve phosphate production performance and maintained steady potash output throughout 2025. He said the company made meaningful progress in controlling costs and improving efficiency. Management now expects to deliver additional cost savings in 2026. He also highlighted that North American sales volumes remained strong. This indicated that Mosaic was able to gain market share, even while operating in a challenging environment.

At the same time, the company continued to reshape its portfolio. Mosaic divested noncore assets, including its Patos de Minas and Taquari operations, and is moving ahead with the planned sale of its Carlsbad facility. These steps reflect its focus on strengthening core operations. Looking ahead, Bodine said Mosaic expects phosphate production to reach at least 7 million tonnes in 2026. Potash production is projected to be around 9 million tonnes, even after factoring in the Carlsbad divestiture.

The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its operations are organized into three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes.

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