A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Progressive (PGR). Shares have added about 1.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Progressive due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for The Progressive Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Progressive's Q4 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates on Higher Premiums
The Progressive Corporation’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.67 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.2%. The bottom line increased 14.4% year over year.
Operating revenues increased 10.6% year over year to $22.49 billion and beat the consensus estimate by 2.5%.
Behind the Headlines
Net premiums written were $19.5 billion in the quarter, up 8% from $18.1 billion a year ago.
Net premiums earned grew 10% to $21 billion. The reported figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.9 billion.
Net realized gain on securities was $257 million versus a loss of $53 million in the year-ago quarter.
Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — deteriorated 10 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 88.
Full-Year Highlights
Operating revenues grew 15.7% year over year to $86.9 billion, driven by 15.3% higher net premiums earned, a 26.5% increase in net investment income, a 12.4% rise in fees and other revenues, and 22% higher service.
Total expenses rose 13.5% to $73.4 billion, attributable to 10% higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, a 13.2% increase in policy acquisition costs, a 19.7% rise in other underwriting expenses, an 18.3% jump in service expenses, a 17.2% improvement in investment expenses, and a policyholder credit expense.
Combined ratio improved 140 bps to 87.4.
December Policies in Force
Policies in force were solid in the Personal Lines segment, increasing 11% from the year-ago month’s figure to 37.4 million. Special Lines improved 7% to 6.9 million.
In the Personal Auto segment, Direct Auto increased 14% year over year to 16 million, while Agency Auto increased 10% to 10.8 million.
Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment rose 4% year over year to 1.2 million. The Property business had 3.6 million policies in force, up 4%.
Financial Update
Progressive’s book value per share was $51.74 as of Dec. 30, 2025, up 18.4% from $43.67 as of Dec. 30, 2024.
Return on equity in December 2025 was 40.1%, up from 36.4% reported in the year-ago period. The total debt-to-total capital ratio improved 270 bps to 18.5.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted 6.21% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Progressive has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Progressive has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Progressive is part of the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry. Over the past month, RLI Corp. (RLI), a stock from the same industry, has gained 6.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2025 more than a month ago.
RLI Corp. reported revenues of $448.73 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.9%. EPS of $0.94 for the same period compares with $0.41 a year ago.
RLI Corp. is expected to post earnings of $0.85 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -7.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.2%.
RLI Corp. has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
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The Progressive Corporation (PGR): Free Stock Analysis Report RLI Corp. (RLI): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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