B&G Foods Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Factors You Should Watch

B&G Foods, Inc. BGS is likely to witness a bottom-line decline when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on March 3. The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 28 cents per share, suggesting a decline of 9.7% from the figure recorded in the year-ago quarter. BGS has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 19.5%, on average.

Factors Likely to Influence BGS’ Q4 Results

B&G Foods continues to navigate a cautious consumer environment while undergoing a portfolio transition. At its fiscal third-quarter earnings call, management indicated that base business sales trends had improved sequentially and that it expects fourth-quarter underlying performance, excluding divestitures, to remain broadly consistent with recent trends. The additional week in fiscal 2025 is expected to provide a modest benefit to reported sales, which could help offset continued volume softness in certain retail channels.

Demand across traditional center-store grocery categories remains uneven, with consumers staying value-focused and promotional activity elevated. Retailers also continue to manage inventories carefully, influencing shipment patterns. While foodservice, club and private label channels have shown relative resilience, branded retail trends remain mixed.

Within Spices & Flavor Solutions, the company implemented targeted pricing actions to offset higher raw material costs and tariff exposure on certain imported ingredients. The fiscal fourth quarter will likely reflect the early impact of these pricing moves.

On the cost front, B&G Foods has been executing productivity initiatives and cost-saving actions aimed at improving efficiency across manufacturing, supply chain and overhead structures. Although input cost inflation has been described as modest overall, certain commodities and packaging inputs remain pressured. Elevated leverage and tariff-related uncertainties are also likely to keep bottom-line growth under pressure on a year-over-year basis.

Earnings Whispers for BGS Stock

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for B&G Foods this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

B&G Foods currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Some Stocks With a Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Ross Stores ROST currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.06% and a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $6.38 billion, which indicates an increase of 7.8% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ross Stores’ upcoming quarter’s earnings per share is pegged at $1.87, implying 4.5% year-over-year growth. ROST delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.7%, on average.

Dollar General Corporation DG currently has an Earnings ESP of +10.44% and a Zacks Rank #3. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $10.77 billion, which indicates an increase of 4.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dollar General’s upcoming quarter’s earnings per share is pegged at $1.59, implying a 5.4% year-over-year decline. DG delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.9%, on average.

Costco Wholesale Corporation COST currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.87% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its upcoming quarter’s revenues is pegged at $69.22 billion, indicating an 8.6% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for Costco’s earnings is pegged at $4.53 per share, implying 12.7% growth from the year-ago quarter. COST delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.5%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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