Retailer Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) could highlight the key priorities of its turnaround plan under new CEO Michael Fiddelke when the company reports fourth-quarter financial results Tuesday before market open.
Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying before the report and the key items to watch.
Target Q4 Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect Target to report fourth-quarter revenue of $30.50 billion, down from $30.91 billion in last year's fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst revenue estimates in six of the last 10 quarters, missing them in the most recently reported third quarter.
Analysts expect Target to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.16, down from $2.41 in last year's fourth quarter.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in seven of the last 10 quarters overall, including in the most recently reported third quarter.
What Experts Are Saying About Target
Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods highlights this as the first quarterly report under Fiddelke and also examines share volatility following recent earnings reports.
"Shares have struggled after recent results falling after each of the last five reports with an average loss of 7.9%," Woods said in a weekly newsletter.
The market expert said Target shares have rallied year-to-date, but they have remained negative over the last year.
Looking at the Target stock chart, Woods sees that things have turned around.
"The stock looks healthy. We have a clear bottoming formation and reversal occurring as shares have consistently made higher highs and higher lows since last fall."
Woods said Target "stock has momentum" thanks to new leadership and within the consumer staples sector.
"Odds of a rally continuing seem to outweigh the risks and that upside longer-term target of $140 seems attainable."
Bank of America Securities analyst Christopher Nardone recently reinstated coverage of Target with an Underperform rating and price target of $103.
The analyst said Target's turnaround may take longer than expected.
Nardone said Target rivals are beating the retailer on price. The analyst said an earnings per share recovery "will take time."
Here are other recent analyst ratings on Target and their price targets:
- Mizuho: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $88 to $100
- Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $115 to $130
- JPMorgan: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $100 to $115
- Bernstein: Maintained Underperform rating, raised price target from $80 to $91
- Piper Sandler: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $85 to $102
Key Items to Watch in Q4 Results
One of the highlights of Target's third-quarter results was news of a deeper partnership with OpenAI, with the integration of the Target app inside ChatGPT to help customers with recommendations, cart building and checkout.
The company could share details on how this integration is going and if it is helping with order frequency and cart size.
Digital sales have grown in recent quarters and helped the company, while discretionary categories have shown weakness. Investors and analysts will be looking for a sign of a turnaround for discretionary items.
Data from Placer.ai shows that Target could be losing market share to rival retailer Walmart (NYSE:WMT). A report shows that Walmart's fourth quarter visits were up 2.3% year-over-year, while Target saw visits down 2.0% in the fourth quarter.
According to the report, Target's foot traffic was down every month of the second half of 2025, except for October (+0.8%). Target's traffic fell 1.6% in November and 4.2% in December on a year-over-year basis, while Walmart was positive in all three months of Q4.
Target Stock Price Action
Target stock is down 1.1% to $112.49 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $83.44 to $127.06. Target shares are up 11.9% year-to-date in 2026 and down 6.9% over the last 52 weeks.
Photo by Ken Wolter via Shutterstock
