Pfizer Stock: Buy, Sell or Hold After Its 11% Rally So Far in 2026?

Pfizer’s PFE stock has risen 11% so far in 2026. The stock has also been consistently trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) since early January.

Pfizer stock has taken a beating for the past three years as its revenues have declined substantially due to lower sales of its COVID products. However, the stock is recovering gradually, backed by several factors like recent earnings and quarterly results that beat expectations and some recent M&A deals. However, its 2026 guidance fell short of expectations, and the company also faces some key headwinds like product patent expirations.

PFE’s see-saw performance has confused investors about whether to buy, sell or hold the stock.

To make this decision, we need to understand the company’s fundamentals. Let’s understand the company’s strengths and weaknesses to better analyze how to play Pfizer stock in this scenario.

PFE Enjoys a Strong Position in Oncology

Pfizer is one of the largest and most successful drugmakers in the field of oncology. Its position in oncology was strengthened with the acquisition of Seagen in 2023.

Oncology sales comprise around 27% of its total revenues. Its oncology revenues grew 8% in 2025, driven by drugs like Xtandi, Lorbrena, the Braftovi-Mektovi combination and Padcev. Pfizer has ventured into the oncology biosimilars space and markets six biosimilars for cancer. Its oncology biosimilars contributed $1.3 billion in sales in 2025, up 26% year over year. Pfizer also advanced its oncology clinical pipeline with several candidates entering late-stage development. By 2030, it expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines in its portfolio.

PFE’s New & Acquired Products Drive Top-Line Growth

Pfizer’s dependence on its COVID business has now reduced. Its non-COVID operational revenues are improving, driven by key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis, new launches and newly acquired products like Nurtec and those from Seagen. Revenues from Pfizer’s non-COVID products rose 6% operationally in 2025. Pfizer's recently launched and acquired products delivered $10.2 billion in revenues in 2025 while growing approximately 14% operationally year over year. In 2026, Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products to record continued double-digit growth.

Pfizer is also trying to rebuild its pipeline through acquisitions. Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven are the most significant strategic acquisitions in recent years. In 2025, Pfizer invested around $9 billion in M&A deals, including the acquisition of Metsera and the licensing deal with 3SBio. The November 2025 acquisition of obesity drugmaker, Metsera, has brought Pfizer back into the lucrative obesity space after it scrapped the development of danuglipron, a weight-loss pill, early in 2025. The acquisition has added Metsera’s four novel clinical-stage incretin and amylin programs, which are expected to generate billions of dollars in peak sales. However, in the obesity space, Pfizer lags far behind leaders such as Eli Lilly LLY and Novo Nordisk NVO.

Pfizer plans to start 20 pivotal studies in 2026, including 10 pivotal studies for the ultra-long-acting obesity candidates added from the Metsera acquisition and four for PF-08634404, the dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitor in-licensed from Chinese biotech 3SBio in 2025.

Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products and a strong pipeline to help revive top-line growth toward the end of the decade.

PFE’s 2026 Financial Outlook Fails to Impress

Pfizer’s revenue and earnings guidance for 2026 represents mostly flat to slightly negative growth, which disappointed investors.

Pfizer expects total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion. The range represents a decline from 2025 revenues of $62.6 billion due to lower revenues from COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, and loss of revenues from the upcoming patent cliff.

In 2026, Pfizer expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.80-$3.00, which represents a decline from the 2025 EPS of $3.22 due to the dilutive impact of 3SBio and Metsera deals, lower COVID revenues and higher taxes.

Declining Sales of PFE’s COVID Products

With the end of the pandemic, sales of Pfizer’s COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, came down to around $11 billion in 2024 and $6.7 billion in 2025 from $56.7 billion in 2022. Sales of Comirnaty declined in 2025 due to a narrow recommendation for COVID vaccines in the United States, while Paxlovid experienced reduced demand from lower infection rates.

In 2026, Pfizer expects its COVID revenues to be around $5 billion, representing a decline from 2025 COVID sales of around $6.7 billion as COVID infection rates are expected to continue to decline.

PFE’s Other Headwinds

Pfizer expects a significant negative impact on revenues from the loss of exclusivity (“LOE”) in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, face patent expirations. The LOE cliff is expected to hurt sales by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026.

Unfavorable impact from the Medicare Part D redesign under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) hurt Pfizer’s revenues in 2025. Higher-priced drugs, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xtandi and Xeljanz, are most affected by the IRA. The negative impact is expected to continue in 2026.

PFE Stock’s Price, Estimates & Valuation

Pfizer’s stock has risen 5.3% in the past year compared with an increase of 18.0% for the industry.

PFE Stock Underperforms Industry

From a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its five-year mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Pfizer’s shares currently trade at 9.39 forward earnings, significantly lower than 18.70 for the industry as well as the stock’s five-year mean of 10.21. The stock is also much cheaper than other large drugmakers like AbbVie, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, J&J and others.

PFE Stock Valuation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings has declined from $3.00 per share to $2.97, while that for 2027 has been stable at $2.83 per share over the past 60 days.

PFE Estimate Movement                    

Short-Term Investors Should Avoid PFE Stock

Pfizer is undergoing a major transition. It faces several near-term challenges like declining COVID sales, the upcoming LOE cliff and U.S. Medicare Part D headwinds, among others. Its new and acquired products, though contributing to growth, haven’t yet been able to replace lost revenues from legacy products and the COVID decline.

The company’s lukewarm guidance has built a negative sentiment around the stock. The declining estimates for 2026 also reflect analysts’ pessimistic outlook for the stock. It might be a good idea for short-term investors to avoid the stock.

However, long-term investors may retain this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock in their portfolio as the company rebuilds its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which it believes can drive growth in 2028 and beyond. Pfizer’s significant cost reduction and efforts to improve R&D productivity measures are also driving profit growth. Pfizer’s dividend yield stands at 6.2%, which is also impressive. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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