Nucor to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?

Nucor Corporation NUE is set to release first-quarter 2025 results after the closing bell on April 28.

The U.S. steel giant surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters while missing once. NUE has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 27.2%, on average. It posted an earnings surprise of 90.6% in the last reported quarter. Weaker selling prices are likely to have hurt NUE’s first-quarter results.

Nucor’s shares have lost 36.4% over the past year, compared with the Zacks Steel Producers industry’s 40.4% decline.
 

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Our Model Unveils for NUE Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Nucor this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for NUE is +6.17%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is currently pegged at 68 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: NUE currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

(Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

What do NUE’s Earnings Estimates Say?

Nucor anticipates first-quarter adjusted earnings to be between 50 cents and 60 cents per share. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter consolidated revenues is currently pegged at $7,215.4 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 11.3%.

Factors at Play for NUE Stock

Lower selling prices are expected to have weighed on Nucor’s performance in the quarter to be reported. NUE, last month, said that it expects a decline in profitability in the first quarter due to weaker selling prices. The steel products segment is projected to see sequentially lower earnings due to lower average selling prices. The company expects profitability in the steel mills segment to be in line with the fourth quarter of 2024. The raw materials segment's earnings are forecast to decline due to lower margins at direct reduced iron (DRI) facilities.

U.S. steel prices saw a sharp decline last year amid increased imports and weaker end-market demand. Benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices tumbled more than 40% last year to close near the $700 per short ton level from $1,200 per short ton at the beginning of 2024. 

The recent steel mill price hikes and the Trump administration's imposition of a 25% tariff on all steel imports into the United States have led to an uptick in HRC prices to above $900 per short ton. However, the benefits of the price uptick are unlikely to be reflected in steel companies' first-quarter performance. Also, a significant recovery in steel prices is not expected over the near term, given the weak manufacturing and construction backdrop and a still-challenging demand environment.  

Lower average selling prices are likely to have impacted NUE’s sales and margins in the quarter to be reported. Our estimate for first-quarter average sales price per ton for the company’s steel mills unit stands at $923, suggesting a 16.7% year-over-year decrease. The same for the steel products segment is pegged at $2,204 per ton, indicating a 15.5% year-over-year decline.

Nucor Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Nucor Corporation price-eps-surprise | Nucor Corporation Quote

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, scheduled to release earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +6.74% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for CF’s earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at $1.43.

ATI Inc. ATI, slated to release earnings on May 1, has an Earnings ESP of +2.46% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for ATI’s first-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 58 cents.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +13.21%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 21 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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