3 Consumer Stocks with Warning Signs

Consumer staples stocks are solid insurance policies in frothy markets ripe for corrections. The flip side is that they frequently fall behind growth industries when times are good, and this perception became a reality over the past six months as the sector was down 1.9% while the S&P 500 was up 6.6%.

Given the low switching costs of basic goods like paper towels, many companies will continue generating poor results while only a handful will shine. Taking that into account, here are three consumer stocks that may face trouble.

MGP Ingredients (MGPI)

Market Cap: $409.5 million

Headquartered in Atchison, Kansas, MGP Ingredients (NASDAQ:MGPI) is a leading supplier of high-quality ingredients to the food and beverage industry

Why Do We Avoid MGPI?

1. Annual revenue declines of 11.8% over the last three years indicate problems with its market positioning
2. Operating margin declined by 28.2 percentage points over the last year as its sales cratered
3. Falling earnings per share over the last three years has some investors worried as stock prices ultimately follow EPS over the long term

MGP Ingredients is trading at $19.18 per share, or 11.9x forward P/E. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including MGPI in your portfolio.

Reynolds (REYN)

Market Cap: $5.11 billion

Best known for its aluminum foil, Reynolds (NASDAQ:REYN) is a household products company whose products focus on food storage, cooking, and waste.

Why Is REYN Risky?

1. Falling unit sales over the past two years imply it may need to invest in product improvements to get back on track
2. Estimated sales for the next 12 months are flat and imply a softer demand environment
3. Commoditized products, bad unit economics, and high competition are reflected in its low gross margin of 25.5%

At $25.04 per share, Reynolds trades at 15.6x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with REYN, check out our full research report (it’s free).

Ingredion (INGR)

Market Cap: $7.36 billion

Known for its ability to turn ordinary corn into thousands of different food ingredients, Ingredion (NYSE:INGR) transforms grains, fruits, vegetables and other plant-based materials into specialty starches, sweeteners and other ingredients for food, beverage and industrial markets.

Why Is INGR Not Exciting?

1. Annual sales declines of 3.1% for the past three years show its products struggled to connect with the market
2. Demand will likely be soft over the next 12 months as Wall Street’s estimates imply tepid growth of 2%
3. Free cash flow margin shrank by 8.3 percentage points over the last year, suggesting the company is consuming more capital to stay competitive

Ingredion’s stock price of $116.98 implies a valuation ratio of 10.3x forward P/E. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than INGR.

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