Can These Beaten Down Stocks Turn Things Around? NKE, ADBE

While the market has been undoubtedly strong over the past year, the same can’t be said for several well-known stocks, a list that includes Adobe ADBE, and NIKE NKE.

Below is a chart illustrating the performance of each over the past year, with the S&P 500 blended in as a benchmark.

Given the weakness, do they deserve a closer look at their slashed prices?

NIKE Can't Find its Stride

NIKE shares have been weak for some time now, with an inability to capture consumers’ attention post-COVID weighing heavily on sentiment. It’s also important to note that NIKE largely cut out retailers to push direct sales over recent years, but the reduction of shelf space backfired considerably, significantly reducing its presence.

Recognizing part of the issue, the company has been actively rebuilding its relationships with retailers and placing greater emphasis on its more popular shoes. The company’s profitability picture has also been challenged, with its gross margin contracting 300 basis points year-over-year throughout its latest period.

Please note that the chart below tracks margins on a trailing twelve-month basis.

The company is actually on deck to report quarterly results at the end of March, which will likely give much more visibility concerning its turnaround efforts and broader outlook. EPS and sales expectations for the upcoming release are down quite a bit since mid-December, but the stability throughout February remains an important takeaway, helping paint a somewhat positive picture leading up to the release.

Below is an image illustrating the evolving revisions picture for the upcoming release.

Given the rough quarterly results and showing over recent months, remaining patient would likely be the better play here, particularly as the company gives further information and guidance surrounding its current turnaround play. NIKE’s release is expected on March 31^st.

Adobe Sentiment Plunges

Adobe shares have seen a lot of negative sentiment over recent months, with AI disruption fears being reflected in the share performance. While there are still no sure-fire signs that the company is in imminent danger stemming from the AI craze, the argument remains valid nonetheless. Most software stocks have faced pressure from the sentiment, with Adobe not alone in this regard.

Similar to NIKE, the company is on deck to report results in the coming weeks, with the print expected on March 12^th. EPS and sales revisions for the quarter to be reported have also remained stable, with the current $5.88 Zacks Consensus EPS estimate suggesting 15% YoY growth.

But while the stability is a positive takeaway, the company still remains vulnerable to a high level of disruption from AI-related technologies, keeping the overall outlook cloudy at this point. Like NIKE, it seems like a stronger idea to wait until we actually hear from the company in the coming weeks concerning its response to the fears, but it’s worth keeping in mind that it won’t explicitly state that it’s at risk. Guidance and revisions that follow post-earnings will be a key deciding factor, with the current cloudy outlook not all that reassuring at present.

That being said, the valuation picture here still can’t be overlooked, with the current 10.8X forward 12-month earnings multiple a fraction of the 32.1X five-year median, also reflecting a steep 52% discount relative to the S&P 500. Much of the negativity has likely already been priced in, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the stock has great upside given the current disruption risks.

Putting Everything Together

Both titans in their respective industries, NIKE NKE and Adobe ADBE, have faced considerable pressure over the last year, with sentiment skewed for some time now.

Both stocks report results this month, with the releases coming at a critical time given the current sentiment. Guidance and commentary remain critical for the post-earnings reactions and sentiment that follows, with both companies undoubtedly remaining in a challenging spot.

Specifically, NIKE has struggled to capture what its consumers want, with a loss of shelf space also reducing its presence to the consumer. Adobe is at risk of considerable disruption from the broader AI outlook, but it’s hard to imagine shares becoming even cheaper than they currently stand.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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