CF Industries' Stock Rallies 37% in 3 Months: Here's Why

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s CF shares have popped 36.5% over the past three months. The company has also outperformed the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 40.7% decline over the same time frame. CF has also topped the S&P 500’s roughly 0.2% decline over the same period.

Let’s take a look into the factors that are driving this fertilizer maker.

CF Stock Gains on Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Higher Prices

CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. After pandemic-related challenges, industrial demand for nitrogen has recovered. 

Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics. High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. CF Industries is also seeing strong demand for urea from Brazil and India. Brazil and India are expected to remain the largest importers of urea globally, driven by higher domestic demand.

CF, on its fourth-quarter call, said that the global nitrogen outlook remains positive in the near term, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India and Brazil will remain the world’s largest importers of urea, driving robust consumption, while inventories remain below historical averages. 

Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the fourth quarter, net sales rose roughly 23% year over year to roughly $1.87 billion. The average selling prices for most of the company’s core products increased compared to the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.

CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow. Net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the fourth quarter, up nearly 28.3% year over year. CF Industries repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in the fourth quarter, and also bought back 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. It returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. The company completed the $3 billion share repurchase program in October 2025. It started a new $2 billion share repurchase program effective through 2029, with $1.7 billion remaining at the end of 2025.

CF’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space include Albemarle Corporation ALB, Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. BVN and Balchem Corporation BCPC.

While ALB and BVN sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each at present, BCPC carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALB’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $7.87 per share, indicating a rise of 1,096.2% year over year. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 57.8%. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BVN’s 2026 earnings is pinned at $3.45 per share, indicating a 4.6% year-over-year increase. BVN’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 80.4%.  

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BCPC’s 2026 earnings is pinned at $5.47 per share, indicating a 6.2% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BCPC’s 2026 earnings has been revised 1.1% upward over the past 60 days. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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