Forget Tariffs, If Stock Market Crash Occurs Under Trump, These 3 Catalysts Will Be To Blame

Amid President Donald Trump's trade wars, the real story for Wall Street in 2026 is a tug-of-war between record-high valuations, a “messy” Federal Reserve, and a literal war in the Middle East. However, experts have told Benzinga that what looks like a bubble to some is simply “agility” to others.

Shiller PE Debate: Bubble Or ‘Corporate Progress‘?

The S&P 500 Shiller PE Ratio recently hit 40.74, as per LongTermTrends, its highest level since the Dot Com bubble. While history suggests a 20% correction often follows such heights, industry experts are divided on whether the metric still matters.

However, Arthur Azizov, CEO of B2BROKER, argues that tech giants like Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) have proven their agility. “Shiller P/E doesn't take into account inflation or corporate progress,” Azizov said. “80-85% of the AI market is occupied by giant tech companies that have survived all the crises of the past decade.”

Similarly, Louis Navellier, Chairman of Navellier & Associates, told Benzinga he has little respect for the backward-looking Shiller PE. “I look at forecasted PE ratios. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) is trading at 22 times forecasted earnings, but after its surprise and higher guidance, it is likely trading at a forecasted PE of 15,” Navellier noted.

"We believe that current market conditions are prompting short-sellers to take a closer look to identify companies whose fundamentals don't support their valuations. We are talking to a number of listed companies about what they can do to mitigate these risks,” said Patrick Sarch, of the White & Case LLP.

Historically, every time the CAPE Ratio has topped 30, it has been followed by a decline of at least 20% in major indexes.

Geopolitical Escalation: The Iran ‘Windfall‘

The U.S. military strikes against Iran are projected by Trump to last "four to five weeks“. While war traditionally spooks markets, some see a localized boom for U.S. energy.

With the Strait of Hormuz closed and Qatar suspending LNG exports, Navellier points out a shift in dominance: “The U.S. energy industry is quickly emerging as a winner… many U.S. energy companies will likely reap windfall profits.”

However, George Smith, Portfolio Strategist at LPL Research, cautions that while markets typically recover from geopolitical shocks within 39 days, the “economic backdrop matters more than the event itself.” Here are two geopolitical events and how they impacted the S&P 500 recovery.

A Fractured And Contradictory Federal Reserve

The third catalyst is a historic lack of consensus at the Fed. With Jerome Powell's term ending in May and Kevin Warsh set to take over, the “dot plot” shows members split on whether to hike or cut.

Azizov defends the Fed, citing a “transition period” where “economic data is giving contradictory signals.”

Meanwhile, Navellier expects a shift in momentum once the leadership changes: “The next Fed rate cut will be postponed till the May FOMC meeting when Kevin Warsh takes over. I am expecting 3 Fed rate cuts this year.”

Nasdaq Lags, S&P 500, Dow Jones Gain In 2026

As of Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones index rose 0.74% year-to-date, whereas the S&P 500 was 0.16% higher and the Nasdaq Composite index was down 1.84% in 2026.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, closed higher on Wednesday. The SPY was up 0.71% at $685.13, while the QQQ surged 1.52% to $610.75.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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