Pfizer (PFE) Down 0.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Pfizer (PFE). Shares have lost about 0.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Pfizer due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Q4 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates

Pfizer reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 66 cents, which comprehensively beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 57 cents per share. Earnings rose 5% year over year due to cost savings and gross margin expansion.

Revenues came in at $17.6 billion, down 1% from the year-ago quarter on a reported basis and 3% on an operational basis due to a 40% operational decline in revenues from its COVID-19 products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid. Total revenues, however, beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.84 billion.

Sales of non-COVID products rose 9% in the quarter on an operational basis, primarily driven by Eliquis, Prevnar family, Vyndaqel family, oncology biosimilars and Abrysvo. Sales of non-COVID products rose 6% in the full year 2025.
International revenues declined 4% on an operational basis to $8.44 billion. U.S. revenues declined 1% to $9.1 billion.

Adjusted selling, informational and administrative (SI&A) expenses declined 5% (operationally) in the quarter to $4.08 billion due to ongoing productivity improvements, which led to lower marketing and promotional spend for various products. Adjusted R&D expenses rose 4% to $3.12 billion due to pipeline optimization (including the expansion of digital capabilities), which made up for higher spending on oncology and obesity pipeline.

Segment Discussion

Pfizer reports its revenues under three broad sub-segments of its Biopharma operating segment — Primary Care, Specialty Care and Oncology. Sales of the Primary Care segment declined 13% operationally to $7.94 billion. The Specialty Care unit recorded sales of $4.77 billion, up 6%. Sales of Oncology rose 8% to $4.44 billion.

Primary Care

In Primary Care, alliance revenues and direct sales from Eliquis rose 8% to $2.02 billion as higher demand trends globally and favorable net pricing in the United States were partially offset by inventory impact in the United States and price and generic erosion in some ex-U.S. markets. Alliance revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.14 billion.

Global Prevnar family revenues rose 8% to $1.71 billion. The Prevnar family includes revenues from Prevnar 13/Prevenar 13 (pediatric and adult) and Prevnar 20 (adult and pediatric). Prevnar revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65 billion. Prevnar sales rose 2% in the United States due to continued uptake of the adult indication, partially offset by lower market share. Sales rose 18% in international markets as strong uptake of the adult indication was offset by unfavorable timing of shipments.

Direct sales and alliance revenues from partner BioNTech for Comirnaty were $2.27 billion in the quarter, down 35% year over year due to narrower COVID-19 vaccine recommendations in the United States that reduced Comirnaty’s eligible patient population and lower contractual deliveries and vaccination rates in international markets. Comirnaty sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.0 billion.

Paxlovid revenues were $218 million in the quarter, down 70% year over year due to lower infection rates, which hurt demand trends globally and lower international government purchases. Paxlovid revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $289 million.

Nurtec ODT/Vydura contributed $405 million in the quarter, up 3% year over year.

Among the new products, Pfizer’s RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, recorded sales of $481.0 million, up 136% on an operational basis, driven by favorable net price and market share for the adult indication in the United States and launch uptake in some international markets. Abrysvo U.S. sales were partially hurt due to limited recommendations for RSV vaccinations issued by the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.

Specialty Care

Global Vyndaqel family revenues of $1.69 billion rose 7% year over year, driven by continued demand growth due to increases in diagnosis and treatment rates, primarily in the United States and developed Europe, and improving affordability dynamics in the United States. However, sales were partially hurt due to lower net prices in the United States, resulting from higher manufacturer discounts from the IRA Medicare Part D redesign and new payer contracts. The Vyndaqel family includes global revenues from Vyndaqel as well as revenues from Vyndamax in the United States and Vynmac in Japan. Vyndaqel family sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.66 billion.

Xeljanz sales declined 8% to $324 million. Enbrel revenues declined 5% to $180 million.

Cibinqo recorded revenues of $78 million in the quarter, up 22% year over year.

Oncology

In Oncology, Ibrance revenues declined 7% year over year to $1.04 billion due to the IRA impact in the United States and generic entry in certain international markets. Ibrance revenues slightly beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.03 billion.

Among the antibody-drug conjugates or ADCs added from the 2023 acquisition of Seagen, Adcetris sales of $220 million declined 23% year over year due to competitive pressure in the United States. Padcev rose 15% to $508 million, driven by strong demand trends mainly due to market share gains in first-line metastatic urothelial cancer. Padcev sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $527.0 million.

Tukysa sales were $119.0 million, down 9%, while sales of Tivdak were $32 million, down 12%.

Xtandi recorded alliance revenues of $592 million in the quarter, up 5% year over year. Inlyta revenues were $235 million in the quarter, down 4%. Lorbrena sales rose 45% to $282 million, driven by market share gains in the first-line ALK-positive metastatic NSCLC treatment setting in the United States, China, and some other international countries, partially offset by lower prices due to the Medicare Part D Redesign impact. Braftovi/Mektovi revenues were $197.0 million, up 16% year over year. New drug, Elrexfio, generated sales of $70 million in the third quarter, up 30% year over year.

Revenues from oncology biosimilars rose 76% to $369 million in the quarter.

Full-Year 2025 Results

Full-year 2025 sales declined 2% both on a reported and operational basis to $62.6 billion but beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $61.94 billion. Sales were slightly higher than the guided figure of around $62 billion.

Adjusted earnings for 2025 were $3.22 per share, up 4% year over year. Earnings per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.13 as well as the guided range of $3.00 and $3.15.

2026 Guidance

In December, Pfizer issued its financial guidance for 2026. The company maintained the guidance along with the fourth-quarter results.

Pfizer expects total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion. The range represents a decline from 2025 revenues of $62.6 billion due to lower revenues from COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, and loss of revenues from the upcoming patent cliff. The LOE cliff is expected to hurt sales by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026. Excluding COVID products and the LOE cliff, Pfizer expects revenues to grow 4% operationally in 2026.

COVID sales are expected to be approximately $5 billion in 2026, representing a decline from 2025 COVID sales of around $6.7 billion.

In 2026, Pfizer expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.80-$3.00, which represents a decline from the 2025 EPS of $3.22 due to the dilutive impact of 3SBio and Metsera deals, lower COVID revenues and higher taxes.

Adjusted gross and operating margins are expected to be stable compared to 2025 levels. Adjusted gross margin is expected to be in the mid-70s. Adjusted R&D expenses are expected to be in the range of $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion in 2026, while adjusted SI&A spending is targeted between $12.5 billion and $13.5 billion. The adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 15% in 2026. Capital expenditures are expected to be slightly over $3 billion in 2026.

The 2026 guidance includes the impact of MFN pricing and the drug-pricing deal with the Trump government.

Pipeline Update

Pfizer said it plans to start 20 pivotal studies in 2026, which include 10 pivotal studies for the ultra-long-acting obesity candidates added from the Metsera acquisition and four for PF-08634404, a dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitor in-licensed from Chinese biotech 3SBio in July last year. Pfizer expects 2026 to be a catalyst-rich year, with some key data-readouts expected in the obesity and oncology programs.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Pfizer has a subpar Growth Score of D, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Pfizer belongs to the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry. Another stock from the same industry, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), has gained 4.6% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.

Johnson & Johnson reported revenues of $24.56 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +9.1%. EPS of $2.46 for the same period compares with $2.04 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Johnson & Johnson is expected to post earnings of $2.68 per share, indicating a change of -3.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Johnson & Johnson has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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